THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 224, September 9, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
THE WORLD BANK NOW AGREES:
WE NEED ANOTHER GREEN REVOLUTION
By Dennis T. Avery & Alex A. Avery
THE WORLD, CURRENTLY & IN THE NEAR FUTURE, FACING ITS BIGGEST-EVER FOOD PRODUCTION CHALLENGE -- CAUSES:
THE WORLD'S LAST SURGE OF POPULATION GROWTH & THE CONTINUING SURGE OF HUMAN AFFLUENCE -- THE
BEST HOPE OF BEING ABLE TO FEED THE WORLD'S EIGHT TO TEN BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050: CONTINUING
DEVELOPMENT & UTILIZATION OF BIOTECHNOLOGY, THAT IS, PRPMOTING & PURSUING A NEW GREEN REVOLUTION
FULL STORY:
The World Bank is warning of “climate chaos” and demands a rebuilding of the world’s agricultural science centers to
keep everyone fed. The basic message is right on target, even if it is swathed in climate hype. Katherine Sierra, the
World Bank’s Vice President for Sustainable Development, says climate change will mean more droughts, floods, more
outbreaks of pests and disease, more heat stress for livestock, and less arable land for crops. She warns the world
“dropped the ball” on agricultural science after the Green Revolution saved a billion people from starvation and
preserved 16 million square miles of forest from being plowed for more low-yield crops.
We are delighted that Ms. Sierra now agrees with us — that the world faces its biggest-ever food production challenge
in the next 40 years — but global warming doesn’t seem to have much to do with it. World temperatures today are just
about the same level as 100 years ago.
The real food challenge is the world’s last surge of population growth and the continuing surge of human affluence.
Population will increase another 40 percent before it starts to decline in the 22nd. century. The World Bank also says
per capita incomes will double rapidly due to technology and trade — if there’s energy.
Fortunately, crop yields are still rising, thanks in part to plant breeding and biotech — and partly to the “CO2 secret.”
Experiments show that more CO2 in the air acts like fertilizer to all plants, even as it increases their water use efficiency.
But yields won’t double by 2050 at their current pace. Hence, the need for another Green Revolution.
Droughts will continue to be important in the 21st century, but they’re always the biggest threat to our food supply.
California had century-long droughts during the Medieval Warming, and a cave stalagmite in West Virginia tells us to
expect a century-long mid-Atlantic drought sometime during the next “little ice age” in 500 years or so. These droughts
happen roughly every 1,500 years, thanks to unstoppable solar cycles.
Luckily, there’s no upward trend in storms. The climate records tell us the cold phases of the cycles were terribly harsh
and unstable, compared to the sunny, well-fed Roman and Medieval Warmings.
The best news is that high-yield farming will serve humanity and protect our forests, whether the climate warms or cools.
We ardently agree with Katherine Sierra that science — especially biotechnology — offers the best hope of being able
to feed 8 - 10 billion people (up from the current 6.5 billion) in 2050. Major progress is already being made on drought
tolerance, nitrogen efficiency, and stacked pest resistance traits. We urgently need more investment in hardier varieties
of such secondary crops as potatoes, yams, peas and beans, where companies see little profit opportunity.
History says the 1,500-year warmings have been abrupt but moderate, so we’ve probably had most of the heating from
this one. Expect another half-degree Celsius or so by 2100.. Expect science and technology to keep developing new
sources of energy, communication, and wealth creation. About 7 billion affluent people will thus have fewer children,
but lots more pets. They’ll demand more meat, milk, ice cream — and more of Fluffy’s favorite food.
Unless crop and livestock yields at least double, quickly, anxious people will clear the remaining forests to plant more
scraggly crops, wiping out vast numbers of wildlife species as they cut and clear.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Agriculture, the Economy, & Human Health & Welfare:
Policy Issues Relating to Food Production & Consumption
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior policy analyst for the United
States Department of State, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with
atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit,
Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Avery's book, Saving the Planet With Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental
Triumph of High-Yield Farming (Washington, D.C.: Hudson Institute, 1995), continues to be popular as a readable overview
of realistic agriculture for the future and for today. Readers may write Avery at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421.
Email: cgfi@hughes.net
Alex A. Avery is Director of Research and Education for Hudson’s Center for Global Food Issues and the author of The
Truth About Organic Foods.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity