THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 251, September 30, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
RECORD SOUTH POLE OZONE HOLE PREDICTED
By Dennis T. Avery
COSMIC RAYS, THE HOLE IN THE EARTH'S OZONE LAYER, & GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE
OZONE LAYER -- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COSMIC RAYS & GLOBAL WARMING & COOLING CYCLES -- THE CASE FOR A
SOLAR-DRIVEN CLIMATE -- THE CASE AGAINST HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING
FULL STORY:
A Canadian scientist says the largest known hole in the ozone will occur over the South Pole in the next week. If that
happens, it will help us understand global warming.
Dr. Qing-Bin Lu, of Canada’s University of Waterloo, says NASA satellites and laboratory measurements show cosmic
rays are the real cause of the seasonal hole in the earth’s ozone layer over the Antarctic. Cosmic rays are tiny, invisible,
high-energy particles from exploding stars which constantly strike the earth — and people. Cosmic rays probably cause
some of our cancers, by altering the DNA inside our bodies.
However, if Dr. Qing-Bin Lu and others are correct, they also are connected to climate change. The number of cosmic rays
hitting the earth varies sharply, based on the activity level of the sun and the size of the magnetic wind it projects out into
space. A weak sun means a weak magnetic wind and more cosmic rays striking earth. Britain’s BBC recently
reported that the solar wind is now blowing at the weakest rate in more than 50 years, and is also 13 percent cooler than it
was 15 years ago.
The ozone layer is important because it absorbs most of the sun’s high-frequency ultraviolet light, protecting us from skin
cancers and cataracts. In the 1980s, eco-activists told us the hole in the Antarctic ozone had been caused by man-made
chemicals released from the chlorofluorocarbons once used in our refrigerators and air conditioners.
Fear of losing the ozone layer’s health protection led to the Montreal Protocol, which has banned CFCs since 1989. But the
ban failed to change behavior of the ozone layer over the Antarctic.
Dr. Lu says that NASA satellites demonstrate that cosmic rays cause drastic reactions in chlorine compounds inside clouds
over the Polar Regions. The satellite data now cover two full 11-year solar cycles, from 1980–2007.
According to Dr. Lu:
“This finding, combined with laboratory measurements,
provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray-driven
reactions in causing the ozone hole, and resolves the
mystery of why a large discrepancy between the
sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed
ozone depletion exists.”
Cosmic rays are also connected to climate change. In 1998, Henrik Svensmark of the Danish Space Research Institute filled a
reaction chamber with the earth’s mix of atmospheric gases, and turned on a UV light to mimic the sun. He was amazed as the
cosmic rays coming through the building’s walls quickly filled the chamber with huge numbers of microscopic, electrically
charged droplets of water and sulfuric acid — the “cloud seeds” that help create low, wet, cooling clouds in the earth’s
atmosphere. Since such clouds often cover 30 percent of the earth’s surface, they can play a crucial role in the planet’s
warming or cooling.
Currently, the World Meteorological Organization uses the photochemical model to predict that the Antarctic springtime
ozone hole will increase by another 5 to 10 percent by 2020. In sharp contrast, Dr. Lu says the severest ozone loss will occur
over the South Pole this month — with another large ozone-triggered hole occurring around 2019.
If the South Pole gets an ozone-hole maximum in the coming weeks, it will strengthen the case for cosmic rays, and endorse
a Modern Warming driven by solar variations, rather than human-emitted CO2. The solar model is already endorsed by
oxygen isotopes in ice cores from both Greenland and the Antarctic, by microfossils in the sediments of nine oceans and
hundreds of lakes worldwide, and by cave stalagmites from every continent, plus New Zealand.
The case for a solar-driven climate is also strengthened by a drop in global temperatures over the past 18 months: The
temperature decline had been forecast by the sunspot index since 2000, but was not predicted by the global climate models.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior policy analyst for the United
States Department of State, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with
atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit,
Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Avery's book, Saving the Planet With Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental
Triumph of High-Yield Farming (Washington, D.C.: Hudson Institute, 1995), continues to be popular as a readable overview
of realistic agriculture for the future and for today. Readers may write Avery at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421.
Email: cgfi@hughes.net
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume X, 2008
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity