THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XII, Issue # 7, January 10, 2010
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
USDA MISLEADS ON FARMING'S CLIMATE FUTURE
By Dennis T. Avery
A NEW REPORT OF THE USDA ON CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS EXPECTED IMPACT ON U.S. AGRICULTURE OVER THE NEXT
HALF-CENTURY: PREDICTIONS OF SERIOUS CLIMATE-RELATED FARMING PROBLEMS AHEAD -- HOW MUCH FAITH
SHOULD WE PUT IN THE NEW USDA CLIMATE-CHANGE FORECASTS? WHAT KNOWN FACTS UNDERMINE THE
VALIDITY OF THE THEORY OF "RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING"?
FULL STORY:
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has issued a new report that attempts to forecast the impact of climate change on
American farming in the next 50 years. USDA seems to expect serious climate-related farming problems ahead, but the
recent changes in global climate have been tiny — and in the “wrong” direction! The earth’s temperatures are now slightly
cooler than when NASA’s James Hansen first warned the U.S. Senate about “runaway global warming” in 1988.
Senior climate researcher Kevin Trenberth, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. recently admitted to
colleagues “we have no idea why the earth isn’t warming, and it’s a travesty that we don’t know.” That’s a quote from one
of those e-mails leaked at Britain’s University of East Anglia.
That pretty much tells us how much faith we dare to put in the new USDA climate-change forecasts.
The USDA report’s timing couldn’t have been worse. Since 2007, the earth seems to have passed a “tipping point” into
global cooling — at least temporarily. NASA told us in 2008 that the Pacific Ocean had shifted into a cool cycle, after
strong warming both globally and in the Pacific from 1976 to 1998 and cooling from 1940 to 1975.
What does USDA predict from its new computer-generated look into the future?
Grain and oilseed crops will mature more rapidly, because of shorter, warmer winters — although rainfall may be more
variable, perhaps even with more drought. (Seems reasonable and generally beneficial — but hardly earth-shaking.)
Horticultural crops may be more vulnerable to climate change than field crops, since climate factors impact appearance and
quality of the produce. (How much did this big report cost?)
Livestock mortality will decrease with warmer winters, but USDA claims this will be more than offset by greater death losses
during hotter summers. (More cattle die in blizzards than in summer pastures equipped with shade opportunities.)
Weeds may grow more rapidly with elevated levels of atmospheric CO2. (But so do crop plants. It’s a wash.)
Disease and insect prevalence will escalate as a result of shorter, warmer winters. (Vaccines and medications have been more
important than modest temperature changes — for both human and livestock diseases.)
The trends toward reduced mountain snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt runoff in the western U.S. imply changes in the
availability of irrigation water. (We’ve had lots of snowpack since 2007. Can the USDA tell us when that will change back
again, and why?)
USDA left out the most important information about CO2 and farming’s future: More CO2 in the atmosphere raises crop
yields substantially, acting like fertilizer for the plants and increasing their water use efficiency. Doubling CO2 in the air raises
the yields of herbaceous plants 30-50 percent, and of trees by 50-80 percent, based on hundreds of studies in dozens of
countries.
Higher CO2 levels should mean higher crop and livestock yields! Talley ho!
RESOURCES:
B.A. Kimball, 1983, “Carbon Dioxide and Agricultural Yields: An Assemblage and Analysis of 430 Prior Observations,”
Agronomy Journals 75, pp 779-788.
K.E. Idso and S. B. Idso, 1994, “Plant Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment in the Face of Environmental Constraints,
A Review of the past 10 years’ Research,” Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 69, pp 153–203.
R.R. Nemani et al., 2003, “Climate-Driven Increases in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999,” Science
300, pp 1560-1563.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Agriculture, the Economy, & Human Health & Welfare:
Policy Issues Relating to Food Production & Consumption
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. He is an environmental economist and was
formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global
Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years. Readers may write Avery at PO Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421 or email to
cgfi@hughes.net
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume XII, 2010
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity