THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XII, Issue # 94, June 5, 2010
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
PAY ATTENTION TO SUNSPOT FORECASTS
By Dennis T. Avery
GLOBAL WARMING, OR GLOBAL COOLING? THE SUNSPOT INDEX PREDICTING GLOBAL COOLING, RATHER THAN
GLOBAL WARMING -- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUN'S INTERNAL CHEMISTRY & THE EARTH'S TEMPERATURES --
THE MASSIVE IMPORTANCE OF THE SUN & SOLAR ACTIVITY TO PLANET EARTH -- KNOCKING DOWN THE IDEOLOGICAL
PROPS SUPPORTING THE ENVIRONMENTALIST MOVEMENT & ITS GLOBAL WARMING PROPAGANDA
FULL STORY:
The sun is currently producing fewer sunspots than it has in more than a century. Florida State University researchers
tell us this may predict bad U.S. hurricane seasons. They say that when the sunspot numbers peak, within the (roughly)
11-year sunspot cycle, the U.S.A. has less than a 25 percent chance of being hit with a hurricane. The odds of a hurricane
rise to 64 percent in the lowest-sunspot years. Even more important, the probability of three or more hurricanes hitting
the U.S.A. in a season increases dramatically during low-sunspot periods.
Years with few sunspots and relatively high ocean temperatures are less stable, and thus trigger more hurricanes,
reports James Elsner, a geography professor at Florida State. He says: “With fewer sunspots, there’s less energy at the
top of the atmosphere.” Thus, the temperature above the hurricane is cooler, he told Florida Today. The
differential creates more instability and stronger storms. Our atmosphere responds dramatically to changes in the sun’s
UV light, because the ozone layer readily absorbs the UV heat.
Humans have known for 400 years — since Galileo — that sunspots correlate with climate changes on earth. A startling
lack of sunspots predicted both of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, the Sporer Minimum that began in 1460, and
the Maunder Minimum, which began in 1645. More recently the Dalton Minimum predicted severe cold in the early
1800s.
Moreover, since 1984, we’ve known that sunspots correlate strongly with abrupt, but moderate, Dansgaard-Oescher
cycles in
the earth’s temperature regime — a 2-4 degree Celsius shift about every 700 years. These changes have produced the
Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warming, the Dark Ages, the Roman Warming, and a whole series of moderate climate
cycles going back at least 1 million years. The sunspot index has a 79 percent correlation with the earth’s temperatures
since 1860, while CO2 has only a 22 percent correlation. The sunspot index has been predicting global cooling since
2000.
Changes in sunspots have also predicted the failure of many human societies over the past 5000 years — including the
collapse of the Mayan civilization and the death of the Roman Empire. The Mayans suffered “a century of drought”
after 800 AD. The Roman Empire collapsed about 540 AD, after the end of the Roman Warming, which had given good
crop-growing weather to both Europe and North Africa for more than 700 years. The shift into the Dark Ages turned
the cropping seasons cloudy, cool and unstable, with violent storms and untimely frosts. That meant no more free
bread for Roman citizens, no grain to feed its legions, and no food to bribe barbarian tribes.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change continues to predict strong warming for the earth over coming
centuries, due to rising levels of atmospheric CO2. However, CO2 makes up only about .03 percent of the atmosphere,
and humans contribute only about 3 percent of the .03 percent.
Roy Spencer, of the University of Alabama--Huntsville, collates the temperature data from the satellites. He says it’s
likely that the IPCC has got it backwards. Instead of higher CO2-induced temperatures creating fewer clouds; fewer
clouds may let more solar heat come to earth, and vice versa. That would account for the predictive failures of the
global climate models. The models did not foresee the recent cooling of the oceans since 2003, for example.
The sunspots, in fact, now predict a 30-year cooling, to be delivered by the Pacific Ocean’s shift into its cool phase.
That, too, will undoubtedly be a product of the sun’s internal chemistry and further evidence of the sun’s massive
importance to Planet Earth.
RESOURCES:
J.H. Elsner et al., 2010, “Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation,” Geophysical Research letters, Vol. 37.
Roy Spencer, Testimony before the Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works, July 22, 2008.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., is an environmental economist. He
was formerly a senior analyst for the U.S. Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable
Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years.
Readers may write Avery at PO Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421 or send email to him at cgfi@hughes.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity