THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XII, Issue # 182, September 5, 2010
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
FOCUS ON YEMEN, NOT ISRAEL-PALESTINE
By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
U.S. SECURITY INTERESTS & THE CONFLICT IN YEMEN: THE SITUATION IN YEMEN FAR MORE WORRISOME &
URGENT TO THE U.S.A. THAN THE UPCOMING ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE TALKS -- AN ALTERATION OF U.S. POLICY
TOWARD YEMEN NEEDED -- IRANIAN INFLUENCE & THE THREAT OF AL-QA'IDA IN YEMEN -- WHAT THE U.S.A. SHOULD DO
ABOUT THE YEMENI SITUATION
FULL STORY:
As Summer draws to a close, much speculation has arisen in the media on the upcoming direct Israeli-Palestinian peace
talks, which the Obama administration hopes will bring about a lasting agreement and a viable Palestinian state within a
year. Meanwhile, news has just come out concerning the start of Qatari-mediated talks between the central government
of Yemen led by Ali Abdullah Saleh and Shi'a Houthi rebels based in the north of Yemen.
Although these talks are unlikely to receive anywhere near the same level of attention as the direct Israeli-Palestinian
peace talks, the U.S.A. should, in fact, act as a mediator in the Yemeni peace talks, and concentrate on urging the
Houthi rebels and the central Yemeni government to reach a worthwhile peace agreement, while leaving the
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations alone. The reasons why such a shift in policy is necessary are many.
First, although an eventual resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is something to be desired, it has little bearing on
the present Middle Eastern Cold War. People in the Arab world are largely indifferent to the current round of
negotiations. A recent survey conducted by the Al-Arabiya television network, for example, discovered that 71%
of respondents had no interest in the upcoming Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Such an attitude of apathy is not at all surprising: Al-Arabiya conducted a similar large-scale survey in May, 2005,
and found that only 8% of respondents saw "the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict" as the main obstacle to "development in
the Arab world;" and only 10% regarded resolving the conflict as "the fastest way to achieve development in the Arab
world."
These data should put to rest the notion of "linkage," the idea that solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the key to
dealing with the problem of Iran's goal of becoming the dominant power in the region.
Proponents of "linkage" argue that Iran is increasing its influence because it is playing on resentment about the ongoing
conflict, but how can this be so when surveys from Al-Arabiya consistently illustrate a lack of interest amongst
Arabs in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the peace process?
Second, as far as U.S. security interests are concerned, the situation in Yemen is far more worrisome and urgent. At
present, Yemen is the scene of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as Saudi Arabia backs the central government
in its campaign to suppress a Shi'a Houthi revolt in the north – a rebellion, which began in 2004, now being supported by
Iran. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has conducted several indiscriminate airstrikes on Yemeni territory; these have killed
scores of innocent civilians and have only stirred up more animosity among Houthis towards Ali Abdullah Saleh's central
government, thereby creating a seemingly intractable cycle of warfare.
The situation is further aggravated in the south by an active separatist movement that has the declared support of
"Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula" (AQAP). The AQAP has taken advantage of the destabilization of Yemen to gain a
foothold from which to wage an insurgency campaign to overthrow the central government as part of Al-Qa'ida's
international jihad. Given that AQAP was likely behind the attempted Christmas Day bombing, the threat emanating from
Yemen-based Islamist militants must be taken seriously.
Although the Houthis are Shi'a and the central government mostly Sunni, the northern revolt is actually rooted in a
rightfully perceived lack of sharing-of-power and oil wealth for the inhabitants of the north of Yemen, rather than as a
religious dispute (several key figures in the Yemeni government, including Ali Abdullah Saleh himself, are Shi'a). The
Houthis thus have legitimate grievances that can be easily addressed; hence, they need not serve as proxies for Iran in
the Arabian Peninsula.
It follows that the U.S.A., as one of the Yemeni government's chief backers, can play a key role in reconciliation by
assuaging fears that the Houthis are attempting to take over all of Yemen.
It is likely, therefore, that the goal of a lasting peace settlement will allow the Yemeni government to focus its efforts on
Al-Qa'ida and the separatist movements in the south. In contrast, the Israeli-Palestinian talks will probably not
progress very far, owing to a range of issues, including settlement construction as a precondition for negotiations;
recognition of Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state, and the influence of hardliners in Fatah -- despite the moderation
of the likes of Salam Fayyad.
The required alteration of policy towards Yemen entails a number of recommendations. Above all, the U.S.A. should
persuade Saudi Arabia to stop conducting airstrikes in Yemeni territory: these only fuel the Houthi insurgency and tilt
it further toward Iran.
In addition, the Obama administration would do well to put pressure on Ali Abdullah Saleh's government to stamp out
corruption and thereby allow for a greater allocation of oil revenues to the north of Yemen. This might involve, for
example, financial incentives for greater transparency, which could also alleviate to a certain extent the country's water
crisis that is particularly affecting the south, and thereby garnering popular support for the southern separatist
movement led by former officials from the defunct Republic of South Yemen. Since 2005, Yemen has dropped farther
down Transparency International's "Corruption Perception Index" to a low, in 2009, of 154th out of 180 countries.
Finally, the U.S.A. might wish to consider urging the central government to grant semi-autonomy to the country's north,
but should, in any case, halt drone attacks. As in Somalia, the U.S.A. faces a situation where overt military intervention
undermines its allies.
These changes in policy will not only contain Iran's influence, but also the threat of Al-Qa'ida in Yemen.
Concentrating on Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, however, which will, at best, be protracted over a much longer time, at
the expense of neglecting the conflict in Yemen, only amounts to allowing potential destabilization across the south of
the Arabian Peninsula.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
Counterterrorism & U.S. National Security
U.S. National Security Strategy
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is a student at Oxford University and an intern at the Middle East Forum.
The foregoing article by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi was originally published in Hudson New York, September 3,
2010, and can be found on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum, a foreign policy think tank which
seeks to define and promote American interests in the Middle East, defining U.S. interests to include fighting radical Islam,
working for Palestinian Arab acceptance of the State of Israel, improving the management of U.S. efforts to promote
constitutional democracy in the Middle East, reducing America's energy dependence on the Middle East, more robustly
asserting U.S. interests vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, and countering the Iranian threat.
(URL: http://www.meforum.org/2740/focus-on-yemen)
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
September 5, 2010
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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