THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 24, January 25, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
NEW STUDY AFFIRMS NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE
By Dennis T. Avery
TRUE SCIENCE KNOCKING THE IDEOLOGICAL PROPS OUT FROM UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTALIST MOVEMENT: THE
THEORY OF HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING REFUTED -- THE WORLD'S RECENT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY SUCH
NATURALLY OCCURING PHENOMENA AS VARIATIONS IN SOLAR IRRADIANCE & COSMIC RAYS HITTING THE EARTH -- NO
EVIDENCE OF MAN-MADE CLIMATE CHANGE
FULL STORY:
It’s nice when people validate your work. Fred Singer and I — co-authors of Unstoppable Global Warming Every
1500 Years — are currently basking in the glow of a new paper that affirms the earth’s long, moderate, natural
climate cycle. The study is by Dr. U.R. Rao, former Chair of India’s Space Research Organization. He says solar
variations and cosmic rays account for 40 percent of the world’s recent global warming.
Dr. Rao says the data between 1960 and 2005 show lots fewer cosmic rays hitting the earth, due to a periodic expansion
of the sun’s magnetic field. The bigger solar magnetic field blocked many of the cosmic rays that would otherwise have
hit earth. Fewer cosmic rays hitting the earth meant fewer water droplets shattering in our atmosphere, and thus fewer
of the low, wet clouds that deflect solar heat back into space. So the earth warmed.
Fred and I tried to tell the world in 2007 that the moderate 1500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle was the cause of the
warming since 1850, based on historic and paleoclimatic evidence. The cosmic ray linkage was put forth in 2008 by
Henrik Svensmark of Denmark. The UN’s panel on climate change dismissed that whole approach, claiming the
variations in the sun’s irradiance were far too small to account for the rapid warming from 1976-1998.
The flaw in the UN reasoning is clear, however. The alarmists claim the global warming since 1976 has been too rapid to
be caused by natural forces, and therefore must be man-made. However, the earth’s Industrial Revolution went global
after 1945 — releasing the first big flush of CO2 emissions. That burst of greenhouse gases should have sharply
boosted the earth’s temperatures. Instead, the earth’s temperature declined from 1940-1975.
Commenting on Rao’s paper, V. Ramanathan of the U.S.-based Scripps Institute of Oceanography says, “The observed
rapid warming trends during the last 40 years cannot be accounted for by trends in [cosmic rays].” But didn’t earth’s
warming from 1915-1940, too early to blame on CO2, move just about as fast for just about as long as the “unnatural”
warming from 1976-1998?
Did human-induced greenhouse emissions account for the other 60 percent of our Modern Warming? Well, a modern
city is fully capable of warming its own temperatures by 7 degrees Celsius or more through expanded brick and
blacktop and lost greenery. A huge number of rural weather stations have been dropped from the rolls in recent years,
putting our thermometers still more heavily in debt to Urban Heat Islands.
A study by Dr. Eugenia Kalnay of the University of Maryland says 40 percent of our net temperature increase since
1940 was actually caused by expanding urban heat islands and land use changes. Since the official net warming over
that period is only about 0.2 degree Celsius, that doesn’t leave much for Al Gore to deplore.
Nor do these studies offer much support for the EPA’s recent finding that global warming presents “public
endangerment.” One of EPA’s own senior scientists produced a contrary evaluation, but he’s been retired and his
paper has been ignored by the government and the mass media.
India may be the most scientifically advanced country that refuses to agree the current global warming is man-made.
Dr. Rao’s paper has just been accepted by India’s most prestigious science journal, Current Science.
SOURCES:
(1)The Hindustan Times January 21, 2011.
(2) E. Kalney and M. Cai. “Estimating the Impact of Urbanization and Land Use on U.S. Surface Temperature Trends:
Preliminary Report,” Nature 423 (29 May 2003): 528-31.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Dennis T. Avery, an environmental economist, is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. He was
formerly a senior analyst for the U.S. Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable
Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years. Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421 or
send him email at cgfi@hughes.net
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