THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 100, April 26, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
UNDERSTANDING POST-MUBARAK EGYPT
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
AS EGYPT LURCHES INTO A NEW ERA, WHAT IS THE COUNTRY'S PROBABLE POLITICAL COURSE? WILL THE SPIRIT OF
TAHIR SQUARE HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT? WILL THE POLITICAL SYSTEM BE A CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY,
AN ISLAMIST THEOCRATIC REGIME, OR A CONTINUATION OF AUTHORITARIAN RULE BY THE EGYPTIAN MILITARY?
FULL STORY:
As Egypt lurches into a new era, a look at its complexities and subtleties helps to understand the country's likely course.
Some thoughts on key issues:
The spirit of Tahrir Square is real and alive, but exceedingly remote from the halls of power. Revolutionary ideas – that
government should serve the people, not the reverse; that rulers should be chosen by the people; and that individuals
have inherent dignity and rights – have finally penetrated a substantial portion of the country, and especially the
young. In the long term, these ideas can work wonders. But for now, they are dissident ideas, firmly excluded from any
operational role.
Military rule will continue. Soldiers did not seize power with Hosni Mubarak's departure two months ago; they did so in
the Egyptian Revolution of 1952. That's when the Free Officers movement overthrew the constitutional monarchy and
took office. One senior military man followed another – from Muhammad Naguib to Gamal Abdel Nasser to Muhammad
Anwar Al-Sadat to Hosni Mubarak to Mohamad Hussain Tantawi – in an unbroken succession over 59 years. With time,
the
military expanded its grip from the political realm to the economic, producing everything from television sets to olive oil
and acquiring control over a sizable portion of Egypt's wealth. The soldiers have become far too accustomed to power
and the good life to give up these perks. They will do whatever it takes, be it purging Mubarak, throwing his sons in jail,
banning his old political party, changing the constitution, or repressing dissent, to keep power.
The military is not secular. From the furthest origins of the Free Officers movement in the 1930s to the recent
re-affirmation of Shari'a (Islamic law) as "the principal source of legislation," the Egyptian military leadership
consistently has displayed an Islamist orientation. More specifically, the Free Officers movement emerged out of the
military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and, through the decades, has been in competition with the civilian wing. As
analyst Cynthia Farahat writes in the Middle East Quarterly (Summer, 2011), their rivalry "should be understood
not as a struggle between an autocratic, secular dictatorship and a would-be Islamist one but a struggle between two
ideologically similar, if not identical, rival groups, hailing from the same source."
The Muslim Brotherhood is less formidable than its reputation suggests.
The Muslim Brotherhood is not a powerhouse. The organization suffers from major problems. First, hot-headed and
violent Islamists despise it. Al-Qa'ida recently blasted it for taking part in elections and ridiculed it for being on the
path to becoming "secular and falsely affiliated with Islam." Second, the Muslim Brotherhood is weak on the ground.
Hesham Kassem, of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights, notes that the Brotherhood's membership does not
exceed 100,000, which, in a country of 80 million, means it "is not really a grass roots movement," but a coddled
institution benefiting from being uniquely tolerated. Genuine political competition should diminish its appeal.
Finally, understanding Egyptian politics means penetrating the characteristically Middle Eastern double game (as in
Iraqi and Syrian politics), one played out here by the military and the Islamists. Note its contrary elements:
Routine military-Islamist cooperation. The military has, Farahat notes, "subtly colluded with Islamists against their
more democratically inclined compatriots and religious minorities, notably the Copts." One of many examples: On April
14, a human rights conference critiquing the military for hauling civilians before military tribunals was twice interrupted.
First by a military police officer worried about "indecent women" and second by Islamists angry about inappropriate
discussion of the military. Who is who? Roles have became nearly interchangeable. Likewise, the new military
leadership permitted Islamists to form political parties and released Brotherhood members from jail. Conversely,
Mohamed Badei, the Brotherhood leader, praised the armed forces and his organization endorsed the Army's March
referendum.
The government exploits fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. The military benefits from worries, both domestic and
foreign, of an Islamist takeover. That prospect justifies not only its own continued domination of Egypt but also
excuses its excesses and cruelties. The military has learned to play Islamists like a yo-yo. For example, Mubarak
cunningly allowed 88 Muslim Brothers into parliament in 2005; this simultaneously showed the perils of democracy
and made his own tyranny indispensable. Having established this point, he allowed just one Muslim Brother into
Parliament in the 2010 elections.
In brief, while the modernity of Tahrir Square and the barbarism of the Muslim Brotherhood both have longterm
importance, in all likelihood, the military will continue to rule Egypt, making only cosmetic changes.
© Daniel Pipes 2011
Originally Published in National Review Online, April 26, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, April 26, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/9722/post-mubarak-egypt
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Egypt, Arabs, & the Middle East
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
North Africa -- The Arab States of Islamic North Africa
The Middle East & the Arabs
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and Director of the Middle East Forum,
Publisher of Middle East Quarterly,
Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a
signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former
adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free
Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a
former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of
Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.
Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page
Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and
developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington
Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network
television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the
U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately
twenty-five countries.
Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into
American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history
and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the
worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume XIII, 2011
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity