THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA

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Volume XIII, Issue # 245, October 11, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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CYPRUS ON THE WORLD STAGE
By Dr. Daniel Pipes

CYPRUS, ISRAEL, & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY:   CYPRUS BEING THREATENED BY AN OVER-CONFIDENT & POSSIBLY MESSIANIC TURKISH POLITICAL REGIME THAT INCREASINGLY MANIFESTS ROGUE ATTRIBUTES -- PROPOSALS FOR A FULL-ON ALLIANCE BETWEEN CYPRUS & ISRAEL -- THE ADVANTAGES THAT CYPRUS WOULD DERIVE FROM SUCH AN ISRAELI-CYPRIOT ALLIANCE -- WHAT ISRAEL WOULD GAIN FROM THE ALLIANCE -- THE IMPORTANT ROLES THAT THE U.S.A., NATO, GREECE, & THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION NEED TO PLAY IN ENCOURAGING CYPRIOT-ISRAELI RELATIONS & THEREBY DIMINISHING THE LIKELIHOOD OF AKP-LED TURKISH AGGRESSION
FULL STORY:   Cyprus, an island near Turkey and Syria of roughly 1.3 million inhabitants, finds itself on the cusp of momentous change. As it belatedly makes its grand debut on the world stage after domestic Greek-Turkish communal issues have consumed its first 51 years of independence, it faces both great opportunity and great danger.

The "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" controls 37 percent of the island's land area.

That communal problem originated in 1570, when the Ottoman Empire conquered the island and its almost entirely Greek-speaking Orthodox Christian population. Over the next three centuries, immigration from Anatolia created a Turkish-speaking Muslim minority. British rule between 1878 and 1960 left this situation basically unchanged. At the time of Cypriot independence in 1960, Turks constituted one-sixth of the population.

Cyprus was hardly the only territory rife with ethnic tensions that London eventually abandoned in frustration think of India, Iraq, Palestine, and Sudan but it was the only one where it retained a permanent role for itself and brought in patron states, namely Turkey and Greece, as guarantors of the newly-independent state.

This mischievous arrangement heightened tensions between both the two island's two communities and their patron states. Those tensions boiled over in 1974, when Athens attempted to annex the whole of Cyprus and Ankara responded by invading the island, seizing the northern 37 percent of the island's territory. Greek annexation fizzled, but the invasion led to the establishment of a nominal "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" (TRNC), which is maintained today by some 40,000 troops from the Republic of Turkey. Hundreds of thousands of settlers have since emigrated from Turkey, fundamentally altering the island's demography.

Cyprus remained thus for 35 years, divided, deadlocked, and largely ignored by the outside world, until two recent developments upended the island's obscure, if unhappy, status quo.

First, the AK Party came to power in Turkey in 2002 with an aggressive program of regional domination. It initially kept this ambition in check, but, with a heady electoral success in June, 2011, followed immediately by its seizure of political control over the Turkish military, this intent emerged in full blossom. The drive to regional domination takes many forms from escalating tensions with Israel to the Turkish Prime Minister's triumphal tour of North Africa but with a specific focus on increasing Turkish power in the eastern Mediterranean. AKP ambitions have thus transformed the Turkish occupation of Cyprus from a sui generis problem into one aspect of a larger issue.

Second, the June, 2010, discovery of gas and oil reserves ("Leviathan") in Israel's Mediterranean Sea exclusive economic zone, right near the Cypriot EEZ, suddenly made Cyprus a player in the world energy market. Cypriots talk of 300 trillion cubic feet worth US$4 trillion. Such numbers attract covetous gazes, especially from Ankara, which demands (via the TRNC) its share of future gas income. Further, the AKP's escalating anti-Zionism, combined with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's strategic ambitions suggest Turkish claims extending to Israeli-controlled waters.

In conjunction, these two developments growing Turkish ambitions and possible gas deposits in the trillions link Cyprus and Israel in self-defense. Leading Greek Cypriot figures in the government, the media, and business told me, during a just-concluded trip to the island, about their urgent wish to build economic and security relations with Israel.

The Piri Reis, Turkey's only maritime research ship, is being escorted by Turkish naval ships as it trolls the Cyprus exclusive economic zone.

In the economic realm, a ranking government official proposes five projects: a joint pipeline from the gas fields to Cyprus, followed by a liquidification plant, a methanol plant, a 1,000 megawatt electricity plan, and a strategic reserve, all located in Cyprus. A media tycoon suggests selling the gas reserves to Israel and letting its companies bear responsibility.

In the security realm, several interlocutors proposed a full-on alliance with Israel. Cyprus would gain from Israel's much greater military, economic, and diplomatic prowess. Israel, which has already made protective efforts on behalf of Cyprus, would benefit from access to an airbase at Paphos, 185 miles (300 kilometers) from its shore, belonging to a European Union member.

Such an alliance would terminate the Cypriot legacy of non-alignment and low-key diplomacy designed to convince governments not to recognize the TRNC, though that strategy, arguably, has not brought it much benefit.

In the face of an over-confident and possibly messianic Turkish leadership that increasingly betrays rogue attributes, Washington, Brussels, Athens, and Moscow have important roles to play in encouraging Cypriot-Israeli relations and thereby diminishing the likelihood of AKP-led Turkish aggression.


2011 by Daniel Pipes. All Rights Reserved.
Originally Published in National Review Online, October 11, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from DanielPipes.org, October 11, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/10222/cyprus-on-the-world-stage


LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Cyprus & Its Neighbors -- Cyprus, Turkey, & Israel

Turkey, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, & the U.S.A.

Israel, Arabs, & the Islamic Middle East -- The Israeli-Arab Conflict;
Israeli Politics, Government, & Public Policy -- Public Issues & Controversies;
The State of Israel in War & Peace -- Israel's Role in International Relations;
Israeli Military Defense & National Security -- The Israeli Economy

American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East

Middle East:  Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors

Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three    Page Two    Page One

International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security

   Page Two    Page One

Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.

Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization

Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies

U.S. National Security Strategy



Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and President of the Middle East Forum, Publisher of Middle East Quarterly, Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.

Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately twenty-five countries.

Dr. Pipes recently visited Cyprus to deliver the Thoukidides Think Tank's inaugural lecture.

Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.




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