She then stated–and, amazingly, no other panelist commented on this–that "Russia might bring troops into Iraq and take possession of any questionable weapons and thus avert a war."

Let's examine this heretofore unexpected ploy: Russia, long a cozy business and oil partner with Saddam Hussein, has not been too keen on this potential war with Iraq. They resisted the Bush administration's United Nations plans for two months, and only then reluctantly joined in UN Resolution 1441.

At the same time, Russia has a multibillion-dollar oil deal with Iraq--a deal that would undoubtedly go down the drain if we "take out" Saddam Hussein's regime.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin followed Ms. Wright's scenario, he could perhaps preserve the Russian influence in Baghdad–and the deals, too. But his so-far friendly relationship with U.S. President Bush would be severely damaged.

The bet here? No such Russian Plan ever happens.

Another more likely scenario was leaked last week: If war looms as a near certainty, a coalition of Arab leaders from the surrounding countries will ask Bush to hold off while they make one last entreaty to Saddam to get him to peacefully step down and go into exile.

He may do so, but only if he is absolutely convinced that a war is coming. (He knows he cannot survive a U.S.-led invasion. Nor does he want to die and be a martyr. So he may very well "buy" a cushy life in Saudi Arabia, but only if he is convinced that war is com- ing.)

A third scenario is coming into focus daily: the North Korean Card.

Russia and Red China, the real Axis of Evil, are the puppet-masters of Pyongyang. It is they who have goosed Kim Jong-il to act up like a petulant baby, as a way to slow down and distract the focus on Iraq.

And it is working. More and more Americans, including prominent Republicans, are asking why such "inconsistency" when it comes to North Korean known nukes and Saddam's lack of nukes.

Meanwhile, we now know that Hans Blix will go to Baghdad on January 20, just one week before he must report to the UN Security Council on the success of the weapons inspections.

Blix, a lifelong pacifist diplomat, does not want to be the man who causes a war to begin. Thus, he will be putty in Saddam's hands during this crucial visit to Iraq. And Saddam will want Blix to make a "nice" report to the United Nations on January 27.

Therefore, it is likely that that the "Inspectors" Report' to the Security Council will not be definitive enough to allow Bush to initiate a war, unless he defies the UN and goes it alone in a new, streamlined coalition. In that case, however, Bush must reveal a "smok- ing gun" piece of intelligence that proves that Saddam has weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Some wonder if, indeed, our heretofore inept, incompetent, and overrated intelligence agencies have any such evidence whatsoever.

Bush has boxed himself in with very strong rhetoric. Both his "Axis of Evil" speech last year and his calls for "regime change" have almost forced him into disappointing some- one on one side or another of these issues.

Already the NeoConservatives are growing antsy about whether or not we really are going to launch this war.

Bush would have been better off following Teddy Roosevelt's dictum: Speak softly and carry a big stick.

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