THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2004:
WHY BUSH WILL WIN REELECTION
By Alan Caruba
If there is one thing that has been clearly demonstrated by the polls taken over the months since the campaign began in earnest in July, Americans who will vote are narrowly divided, something along the lines of 46% or 47%. Neither party has to woo these voters. Liberals will have no problem voting for John F. Kerry, but a lot of Conservatives will have to hold their nose when they pull the lever for George W. Bush.
This should worry those in charge of Bush’s campaign, but I suspect it doesn’t. They know something that those of us who devote ourselves to interpreting political tea leafs also know. Among the “undecideds” will be enough people for whom the image of 9-11 is sufficient to raise the question, which one of these guys will protect me?
When you add in the votes by members of our military and the votes of older generations that can remember World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War, the victories in Afghanistan and in Iraq are sufficient proof that the President means what he says and, more importantly, understands we are in a life-and-death struggle with people who would happily kill millions of us in the name of Allah.
We won World War II (along with our allies) because we threw everything we had at the enemy. We stalemated North Korea and that idiotic situation remains today, still threatening peace in that region. We lost the Vietnam War because we slowly became involved in a civil war (after the Vietnamese Communists had defeated the French!) and we did not pursue the war with a serious will to win. Those lessons were not lost on Bush and his happy band of neo-cons, nor on the present and past members of the military and their families.
This election is about the security of the nation and, beyond that, a world threatened by Islamic fanaticism. As the only superpower in the world, we had no choice but to chase and kill as many enemies as we could. And, best of all, we did it in their backyard, not ours.
That is why, as of this writing, there has been no attack since September 11, 2001, here at home. That fact is not lost on people who want to get on a bus or subway and not get blown to smithereens. An attack, however, would in my opinion produce a real landslide for Bush.
Others will vote for Bush because they are deep dish Christians and know he agrees with them about abortion and the role of religion in American life. Then there are the votes from among the 80 million gun owners in America who resent the constant attacks on the Second Amendment. Still others will vote for him because they think he is strong on education. They will not include the members of the National Education Association, which owns the Democrat Party. The fact is, Bush doesn’t know squat about education and has expanded the federal stranglehold on it.
Some undecideds will vote because the economy is improving. Apparently cutting taxes is a good idea. Unemployment rates are down. The stock market is waiting for the election to get over with so it can careen upwards or downwards, depending on who wins. Wall Street wants Bush. Hollywood wants Kerry.
Nobody cares who the vice presidential candidate is. Despite the blather about Cheney, depicted in the press these days as the evil mentor and manipulator of Bush, or about Edwards, said to be able to deliver the South, none of this is true, nor will it have any impact because people vote for the top of the ticket. Period.
Other than the Presidency, the real importance of the election will be the composition of Congress. When the “Contract With America” turned Congress over to the Republicans during Clinton’s era of malfeasance, we enjoyed the beginning of the economic boom that distinguished the 1990’s. The budget was balanced, the Internet bubble was driving up the Dow Jones, and euphoria reigned. Amazingly, the economy has recovered rather swiftly from 9-11.
The 2000 election, however, was terrifyingly close. Democrats still claim it was stolen, but a dozen careful studies by news organizations and others demonstrated that Bush won. Not by much, but a win is a win. I think we shall see this repeat itself, but with enough voters opting for national security over any other issue to make the difference.
It won’t be a pretty victory or a dramatic one, but it will be a victory.
In the meantime, the campaigns demonstrate the lack of seriousness that today’s politics represents. Voters will tune into the debates with the hope of hearing real issues discussed. I will too.
American Government & the U.S. Presidency
The Threat of Radical Islam
The Middle East & the Problem of Iraq
The Problem of Rogue States:
Iraq as a Case History
War & Peace in the Real World
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Terrorism & American Homeland Security
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Africa: Black Africa *
Africa: North Africa *
American Government 1
LINKS TO PARTICULAR ISSUES & SUBJECT MATTER CATEGORIES
TREATED IN THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, U.S.A.:
American Government 2 * American Government 3 * American Government 4
American Government 5 * American Politics * Anglosphere * Arabs
Arms Control & WMD * Aztlan Separatists * Big Government
Black Africa * Bureaucracy * Canada * China * Civil Liberties * Communism
Congress, U.S. * Conservative Groups * Conservative vs. Liberal
Constitutional Law Counterterrorism * Criminal Justice * Disloyalty * Economy
Education * Elections, U.S. * Eminent Domain * Energy & Environment
English-Speaking World * Ethnicity & Race * Europe * Europe: Jews
Family Values * Far East * Fiscal Policy, U.S. * Foreign Aid, U.S. * France
Hispanic Separatism * Hispanic Treason * Human Health * Immigration
Infrastructure, U.S. * Intelligence, U.S. * Iran * Iraq * Islamic North Africa
Islamic Threat * Islamism * Israeli vs. Arabs * Jews & Anti-Semitism
Jihad & Jihadism * Jihad Manifesto I * Jihad Manifesto II * Judges, U.S. Federal
Judicial Appointments * Judiciary, American * Latin America * Latino Separatism
Latino Treason * Lebanon * Leftists/Liberals * Legal Issues
Local Government, U.S. * Marriage & Family * Media Political Bias
Middle East: Arabs * Middle East: Iran * Middle East: Iraq * Middle East: Israel
Middle East: Lebanon * Middle East: Syria * Middle East: Tunisia
Middle East: Turkey * Militant Islam * Military Defense * Military Justice
Military Weaponry * Modern Welfare State * Morality & Decency
National Identity * National Security * Natural Resources * News Media Bias
North Africa * Patriot Act, USA * Patriotism * Political Culture * Political Ideologies
Political Parties * Political Philosophy * Politics, American * Presidency, U.S.
Private Property * Property Rights * Public Assistance * Radical Islam
Religion & America * Rogue States & WMD * Russia * Science & Ethics
Sedition & Treason * Senate, U.S. * Social Welfare Policy * South Africa
State Government, U.S. * Subsaharan Africa * Subversion * Syria * Terrorism 1
Terrorism 2 * Treason & Sedition * Tunisia * Turkey * Ukraine
UnAmerican Activity * UN & Its Agencies * USA Patriot Act * U.S. Foreign Aid
U.S. Infrastructure * U.S. Intelligence * U.S. Senate * War & Peace
Welfare Policy * WMD & Arms Control
Africa: Black Africa *
Africa: North Africa *
American Government 1