THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA

An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 99, June 10, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
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GLOBAL WARMING:  SOME INCONVENIENT GLACIERS
By Dennis T. Avery

ALBERT GORE, GLOBAL WARMING THEORY, POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM, & THE HISTORY OF GLACIAL ACTIVITY -- A NEW SCIENTIFIC, PEER-REVIEWED STUDY PRODUCES EVIDENCE DESTROYING THE FOUNDATION STONE OF ENVIRONMENTALIST IDEOLOGY: THE THEORY THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSED BY INCREASED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS PRODUCED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY
FULL STORY:   Al Gore, Liberal Leftist Democrat and pompous apostle of global warming theory and environmentalist ideology, says the worldís glaciers are melting because humanity has emitted too much carbon dioxide.

However, a new peer-reviewed study shows that, in South AmericaĎs Andes Mountains, the glaciersí advances and retreats have not been governed by carbon dioxide, but by small variations in the sunís intensity.

The study, led by P.J. Polissar of the University of Massachusetts, found that Andean glaciers expanded only four times during the 600 years of the Little Ice Age, which lasted from 1250 AD to 1850. Each of those glacier advances occurred during a solar minimum, when the sunís lowered activity apparently dropped the mountain-top temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Centigrade (Celcius) and increased precipitation by about 20 percent.

The Polissar teamís report, "Solar Modulation of Little Ice Age Climate in the Tropical Andes," was recently published online in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The team studied the glaciersí moraines ó piles of rocks, soil, tree trunks, and other glacial debris left behind when the glaciers retreated. Then they matched the glacial debris with the sediment layers in nearby mountain lakes. The pronounced seasonality in the Andes precipitation allows the researchers to count years in the sediments and precisely date the glacial advances.

The Andes glacier study not only links glacial advances and retreats with the sun, but emphasizes that the earthís glaciers have often retreated ó and even disappeared ó during past centuries, long before humans built cars and smokestacks.

Most of the Andes glaciers must have disappeared during the Holocene Warming that ended just 5,000 years ago. Temperatures then were as much as 2 degrees Centigrade warmer than todayís. So far, the Modern Warming has produced about only 0.8 degrees Centigrade of total temperature rise in its 150 years.

The sun has been linked to earthís climate changes for the past 400 years ó by sunspot records. Early astronomers noted that the two coldest periods of the Little Ice Age occurred when there were virtually no sunspots on the sun. The Sporer Minimum lasted from 1420 to 1570, and the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to 1710.

The solar-earth linkage came to the fore again in the 1980s, when researchers brought up the first long ice cores from Greenland and the Antarctic. The 400,000 years of temperature history contained in the ice cores clearly showed a moderate, natural cycle that raised temperatures at the latitude of New York and Paris by about 2 degrees Centigrade, and then lowered them by a similar amount. The cycles averaged about 1500 years in length. Carbon 14 and beryllium 10 isotopes in the ice clearly linked this temperature cycle to the sun.

The question for Al Gore is not whether our temperatures are rising; the key question is why theyíre rising. Antarctic ice cores tell us that temperatures and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have tracked closely together through recent Ice Ages, but the carbon dioxide changes have lagged behind the temperature changes by about 800 years.

Higher temperatures have produced more atmospheric carbon dioxide, rather than carbon dioxide producing higher temperatures! Thatís because most of the planetís carbon dioxide is stored in the oceans, and, as the seawater warms, it canít hold as much carbon dioxide.

If carbon dioxide is the driving climate force, why did the earth begin warming in 1850, while human carbon dioxide emissions didnít start to really expand until about 1940? Mr. Gore doesnít tell us the answer.

Why did the earthís temperatures decline from 1940 to 1975, even as carbon dioxide emissions were soaring? Mr. Gore doesnít say.

How warm will New York get in the Modern Warming? Apparently, Mr. Gore canít tell us, but a total of 2 degrees Centigrade seems likely ó based on the history in the ice cores.


LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources



Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior analyst for the United States Department of State. Readers may write him at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, VA 24421. Email: cgfi@rica.net




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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor

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