THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 234, December 5, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
CAN BRITISH WINE GRAPES RESOLVE
A GLOBAL WARMING QUESTION?
By Dennis T. Avery
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS & GLOBAL WARMING THEORY: REFUTING A MAJOR IDEOLOGICAL PROP OF
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM -- USING THE HISTORICAL RECORD OF BRITISH WINE GRAPE PRODUCTION TO DISPROVE
THE THEORY OF HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING -- THE SCIENTIFIC TRUTH REGARDING GLOBAL WARMING:
ALTERNATE PERIODS OF GLOBAL WARMING & COOLING AS REFLECTIONS OF THE EXISTENCE & OPERATION OF A LONG,
NATURAL CLIMATE CYCLE -- RECENT GLOBAL WARMING AS PART OF A NATURALLY OCCURRING PHENOMENON, NOT
SOMETHING DUE TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL USE, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, & OTHER
HUMAN ACTIVITIES
FULL STORY:
British wine grapes are suddenly in the midst of the global warming controversy.
Historical records tell us that Britain grew wine grapes 2000 years ago during the Roman Warming, and 1000 years ago during
the Medieval Warming. Since 1300, however, Britain has been too cold for wine grapes. The debate: Is human-induced
warming boosting British temperatures to “unnatural” levels, or is the gradual warming a repeat of previous cycles?
The Internet website, English-wine.com, says there are more than 400 vineyards in Britain today, and “. . . the good
news about English wine [is] how good, even superb, it can be.”
It certainly sounds like Britain has gotten warmer recently, but why? The same web site has a “History” section, which
reveals:
“In England [today], it is only in about 2 years in every 10
that grape production will be really good, 4 years will be
average, and 4 years poor or terrible — largely due to
weather and/or disease exacerbated by weather.”
(Sounds as if we aren’t quite to “wine country warmth" yet, doesn’t it?)
The same website also says:
“In the 1990s, the increase in the number of vineyards and
the acreage under cultivation has leveled off, maybe even
declined a little. There are a number of reasons for this —
many English vineyards have undoubtedly been
established with little knowledge of, or even concern for,
their financial viability. A saying has grown up that the
best way to get a small fortune is to have a large fortune
and buy an English vineyard. Whilst this is cruel, it is also
pretty certain that it is true.”
The website, RealClimate.org, though it believes fervently in man-made global warming, accurately laid out the last
1000 years of British wine-making on July 12, 2006:
“The earliest documentation that is better than anecdotal
is from the Domesday Book (1087 AD) . . . Selley quotes
Unwin (J. Wine Research, 1990), who records 46 vineyards
across Southern England [at that time] . . . production
clearly declined after the 13th century, and had a modest
resurgence in the 17th and 18th centuries, only to decline
to historic lows in the 19th century, when only 8 vineyards
are recorded. . . . English and Welsh wine production
started to have a renaissance in the 1950s. By 1977, there
were 124 reasonable-sized vineyards in production —
more than at any other time over the previous millennium.”
So, British wine-making thrived during the Medieval Warming, failed during the Little Ice Age (1300 to 1850), and began to
make a comeback in the 1950s, after major world temperature surges between 1850-1870 and 1920-1940. The uncertain
quality of today’s British wine grapes indicates that Britain still isn’t as warm now as during the Roman and Medieval
Warmings.
This argues that we’re in a long, natural climate cycle. So does the fact that more than 70 percent of the planet’s recent
warming occurred before 1940, and thus before humans emitted much carbon dioxide. Ice cores and seabed sediments
show the 1500-year cycle extending back 900,000 years, and carbon 14 isotopes say it’s linked to variations in the sun’s
irradiance.
British wine growers are likely to have several more moderately warmer centuries in which to prosper. And wine lovers will
have more pleasant weather in which to enjoy the wines than they did during the cold, cloudy and stormy Little Ice Age. A
reduction in fossil fuel use might be a good strategy for the future, but, apparently, such a strategy would have little impact
on the earth’s climate.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior analyst for the United States
Department of State. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the forthcoming book Unstoppable
Global Warming: Every 1500 Years, to be published in October, 2006, by Rowman & Littlefield. Readers may write Avery
at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email: cgfi@rica.net
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