THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 114, May 1, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
NEW JASON SATELLITE INDICATES 23-YEAR GLOBAL COOLING
By Dennis T. Avery
THE NEW JASON OCEANOGRAPHIC SATELLITE: INDICATING GLOBAL COOLING, RATHER THAN GLOBAL WARMING,
DURING THE NEXT TWENTY-THREE YEARS -- DEFYING THE GLOBAL WARMING THESIS ADVANCED BY THE
ENVIRONMENTALISTS -- IDENTIFYING VARIATION IN SOLAR ACTIVITY AS THE CAUSE OF ALTERNATE PERIODS OF GLOBAL
WARMING & COOLING -- DEFYING THE ENVIRONMENTALISTS' GREENHOUSE GASES THEORY -- UNDERMINING IDEOLOGICAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THE ENVIRONMENTALIST POLICY AGENDA
FULL STORY:
Now it’s not just the sunspots that predict a 23-year global cooling. The new Jason oceanographic satellite shows that
2007 was a “cool” La Nina year — but Jason also says something more important is at work: The much larger and more
persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has turned into its cool phase, telling us to expect moderately lower global
temperatures until 2030 or so.
For the past century, at least, global temperatures have tended to mirror the 20-year to 30-year warmings and coolings
of the north-central Pacific Ocean. We don’t know just why, but the pattern of the last century is clear: the earth
warmed from about 1915 to 1940, while the PDO was also warming (1925-1946). The earth cooled from 1940 to 1975, while
the PDO was cooling (1946-1977). The strong global warming from 1976 to 1998 was accompanied by a strong and almost
constant warming of the north-central Pacific. Ancient tree rings in Baja California and Mexico show there have been 11
such PDO shifts since 1650, averaging 23 years on length.
Researchers discovered the PDO only recently — in 1996 — while searching for the reason salmon numbers had declined
sharply in the Columbia River after 1977. The salmon catch record for the past 100 years gave the answer — shifting
Pacific Ocean currents. The PDO favors the salmon from the Columbia for about 25 years at a time, and then the salmon
from the Gulf of Alaska, but the two fisheries never thrive at the same time. Something in the PDO favors the early
development of the salmon smolts from one region or the other. Other fish, such as halibut, sardines and anchovies,
follow similar shifts in line with the PDO.
The PDO seems to be driven by the huge Aleutian Low in the Arctic — but we don’t know what controls the Aleutian
Low. Nonetheless, 22.5-year “double sunspot cycles” have been identified in South African rainfall, Indian monsoons,
Australian droughts, and rains in the United States’ far southwest as well. These cycles argue that the sun, not CO2,
controls the earth’s temperatures.
Dr. Henrik Svensmark’s recent experiments at the Danish Space Research Institute seem to show that the earth’s
temperatures are importantly affected by the low, wet clouds that deflect more or less solar heat back into space. The
number of such clouds is affected, in turn, by more or fewer cosmic rays hitting the earth. The number of earthbound
cosmic rays depends on the extent of the giant magnetic wind thrown out by the sun.
All of this defies the “consensus” that human-emitted carbon dioxide has been responsible for our global warming. But
the evidence for man-made warming has never been as strong as its Green advocates maintained. The earth’s warming
from 1915 to 1940 was just about as strong as the “scary” 1975 to 1998 warming in both scope and duration — and
occurred too early to be blamed on human-emitted CO2. The cooling from 1940 to 1975 defied the Greenhouse Theory,
occurring during the first big surge of man-made greenhouse emissions. Most recently, the climate has stubbornly
refused to warm since 1998, even though human CO2 emissions have continued to rise strongly.
The Jason satellite is an updated and more-accurate version of the Poseidon satellite that has been monitoring the
oceans since 1992, picking up ocean wind speeds, wave heights, and sea level changes. Jason is run by NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory and a French team.
How many years of declining world temperature would it take now — in the wake of the ten-year non-warming since
1998 — to break up Al Gore’s “climate change consensus”?
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior policy analyst for the United
States Department of State, where he won the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement. He is the co-author, with
atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit,
Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Readers may write Avery at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email:
cgfi@rica.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity