THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 221, September 7, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
ELECTION ASSUMPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS
By Jim Camp
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN OF 2008: THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THE CAMPAIGN SEASON -- LEARN
AS MUCH AS YOU CAN ABOUT THE COMPETING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE AMPLE
SOURCES OF CREDIBLE INFORMATION BEYOND THE DAILY BABLE OF MEDIA PUNDITS & PARTISAN PROPAGANDISTS -- DO
NOT ASSUME YOU KNOW WHAT THE CANDIDATES ARE THINKING & DO NOT LET YOUR EXPECTATIONS INTERFERE WITH
YOUR DECISION, AS REGARDS THE VERY REAL QUESTIONS OF EITHER CANDIDATE'S EXPERIENCE, CHARACTER, &
JUDGEMENT -- MAKE CERTAIN THAT YOUR ELECTION ASSUMPTIONS & EXPECTATIONS ARE BASED ON FACTS, NOT
EMOTION -- WORK AT BEING AN INFORMED VOTER
FULL STORY:
We are all the sum of our experiences and much of the process by which we make judgments about others is the result of
learning something about their lives and experiences. This is particularly true of the political campaigns for the Presidency
of the United States of America.
We want to “know” the candidate before we vote for him. The campaign makes significant efforts to provide a believable
biography of their candidate. Part of my biography was my service in Vietnam. The same war saw U.S. Senator John
Sidney McCain’s physical strength, mental toughness, and character tested through five years of imprisonment. By
contrast, U.S. Senator Barack Hussein Obama has not had the opportunity to serve in war, but there are other means by
which to judge his courage and foresight
As I point out in my book, No. The Only Negotiating System You Need for Work or Home, we got into the Vietnam
War and remained engaged in it on the basis of incorrect assumptions.
“In Vietnam, successive [U.S.] administrations were absolutely
certain they knew what the North Vietnamese were thinking and
how they would react to bombing halts, bombing resumptions,
peace feelers, and all of our other futile attempts to obtain ‘peace
with honor.’ Absolutely certain and absolutely wrong.”
Each voter has to approach the coming election as if it were a blank slate. There looms for each of us the potential of being
absolutely certain and absolutely wrong. As a negotiations coach, I teach students and clients to forget their positive and
negative expectations. I tell them to stay with their mission and purpose, and, most important of all, their principles.
By late July, 2008, following his whirlwind tour of the Middle East and Europe, Senator Obama returned to discover that,
according to Rasmussen Reports, an astonishing 63% of potential voters did not believe the trip had made him any more
qualified to be U.S. President.
Given the instability of the Middle East and our dependency, in part, on its oil, an Iraq that can demonstrate stability and
movement toward a constitutional democratic form of governance looms large in how people will cast their vote. I believe
that most Americans have concluded that leaving before achieving that mission would be a big mistake. We need, therefore,
to know what assumptions both of the presidential candidates have made regarding the outcome of the conflict in Iraq.
Remember, though, assumptions as regards politicians or in any negotiation can be seriously wrong. Lost in the midst of the
campaign is the fact that, however wrong President George W. Bush’s assumptions may have been to invade Iraq, after
replacing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and heeding the advice of his generals, the war has moved steadily toward
an improved status involving a serious reduction in conflict and a growing political coalition in Iraq between competing sects
and national parties.
Ultimately, the projection of American power in that vital region of the world appears to be yielding good results. Saddam
Hussein, who had invaded Iran in the 1980s and Kuwait in the 1990s, is gone. Al-Qa'ida has been seriously degraded. The
ultimate mission is showing signs of real success. At some point in the campaign, voters need to know what assumptions
both presidential candidates have made regarding the unfinished job in Afghanistan.
The candidates the voters come to “know” are primarily the campaign biographies presented to them via their websites,
television commercials, and their speeches.
Again, relying on my years of training people to negotiate successfully, permit me to point out that, just as dangerous as
assumptions can be, so too are expectations, and political campaigns are all about expectations.
Most people believe they are pretty good at “reading” other people, at understanding what they are really feeling and
thinking. This is often a serious error when negotiating. In terms of the current campaigns and the times in which they are
being conducted, rapid national and international changes must be factored into a voter’s decision. One example is the
recent invasion of Georgia [Gruzia] by the Russian Federation. That is now a factor in determining which U.S. presidential
candidate responded best to it.
Senator Obama’s primary political theme is “change.” I challenge you, however, to ask yourself if anyone could have
anticipated the change that occurred on September 11, 2001? Could anyone have anticipated the mortgage loan bubble that
has burst in the last year? Could anyone have anticipated $4.00-a-gallon gasoline? No one expected 9/11, despite warnings
that such an attack could occur. It defied the imagination. No one would have predicted the current status of our nation’s
economy, but we expect Presidents to respond effectively when such events occur.
My advice is to not assume anything about Senator Obama or Senator McCain. Do not assume you know what they are
thinking and do not let your expectations interfere with your decision, as regards the very real questions of McCain’s or
Obama’s experience, character, and judgment.
Instead, do what any good negotiator would do. Learn as much as you can about Senator Obama and Senator McCain.
There are ample sources of credible information beyond the daily babble of media pundits.
Every election is about assumptions and expectations. Make sure that your's are based on facts, not emotion. Read their
books and their voting history. Ask questions of the commentary you listen to or read. Work at being informed.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
American Politics & Political Competition:
Elections, PACs, & Political Parties
American Government & the U.S. Presidency:
Presidential Politics & National Leadership
The American Political System:
Politics & Government in the U.S.A.
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
U.S. National Security Strategy
Jim Camp is an internationally recognized expert on negotiation and the author of two bestselling books on the subject. His
website is www.startwithno.com.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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