THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume X, Issue # 300, November 12, 2008
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
SYRIA CANNOT BE FLIPPED
By Dr. Michael Rubin
SYRIA, THE MIDDLE EAST, & U.S. FOREIGN FOLICY: OBAMA PLANNING DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT WITH SYRIA,
HOPING TO WEAKEN SYRIA'S CONNECTION TO HAMAS & HEZBOLLAH & UNDERMINE THE SYRIAN-IRANIAN RELATIONSHIP
-- ARAB HISTORY & POLITICAL CULTURE AS THE PRIMARY PROBLEM WITH PURSUIT OF OBAMA'S POLICY AGENDA IN THE
MIDDLE EAST -- WHY ALL THREE RIVALS FOR LEADERSHIP OF THE ARAB WORLD, SYRIA, IRAQ & EGYPT, WILL NEVER
COEXIST SIMULTANEOUSLY AS PARTNERS
FULL STORY:
"Not talking doesn't make us look tough -- it makes us look arrogant," President-elect Barack Obama declares. Throughout
his campaign, he has promised renewed engagement after eight years of moribund diplomacy. Chief among his diplomatic
targets is Syria, low-hanging fruit unencumbered by the political minefield that would result from engaging the
Hamas-dominated Palestinian government. Obama has already dispatched once and future adviser Robert Malley to
discuss his regional agenda with Syrian leaders.
Aaron Miller, another veteran Clinton-era peace processor, wrote on November 4, 2008, about the Syrian temptation. A
Syrian deal, Miller argued, would weaken "Syria's connection to Hamas and Hezbollah, and…the Syrian-Iranian
relationship." Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, for his part, appears a ready partner.
In a congratulatory telegram to Obama, the Syrian leader expressed "hope that dialogue would prevail to overcome the
difficulties that have hindered real progress toward peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East."
It is tempting to believe that U.S. diplomacy can flip Syria. The last rejectionist Arab state, Syria is a lynchpin not only in
the Arab-Israeli peace process, but also in efforts to resolve Iraqi insurgency and Lebanese instability. Alas, as audacious
as Obama's hope might be, Syria cannot be flipped. It may be fashionable to blame Bush for the failure to seize a Damascus
olive branch, but the real problem has less to do with any U.S. administration and much more to do with Arab history and
political culture.
For more than a millennium, Damascus, Baghdad and Cairo have competed for the leadership of the Arab world. Soon after
the Prophet Muhammad's death, the Umayyad dynasty established Damascus as the seat of the Islamic empire. Less than a
century later, the successor Abbasids transferred the Caliphate to Baghdad.
In the 10th century, the Fatimid dynasty built Cairo as the seat of a counter-caliphate to challenge Abbasid -- and Baghdad's
-- dominance. The Mongols sacked Baghdad in 1258 and put an end to Arab dominance in the Islamic world. The Ottoman
(Turkish), Safavid (Iranian) and Mughal (Indian) empires filled the vacuum and created a new paradigm that would last for
centuries.
World War I shattered the Middle East as much as the Mongol invasion had seven centuries earlier. From the Ottoman
Empire's ashes arose a new cast of Arab states, the most important of which coalesced around new leaders in Damascus,
Baghdad, and Cairo. Each struggled to exert leadership across the entire Arab world. Israel became a useful template around
which they could posture and against whom they could act as each sought to outdo its rivals in a claim to Arab leadership.
At times, two rivals would join forces, but never has there been solidarity among all three. In 1958, for example, Egypt and
Syria joined together to form the United Arab Republic. Rather than join with Cairo and Damascus, Baghdad created its own
counter-union with Amman. Neither union lasted. Each Arab leader chafed at political and diplomatic subservience to the
other.
The next decade saw Baathism's rise in Syria and Iraq. The more alike the two capitals grew, the fiercer their rivalry became.
Unity is not an Arab virtue. As each struggled to lead the rejectionist camp, Cairo struck its own claim to leadership.
Uncomfortable under the same Cold War umbrella as its rivals, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat switched back to the U.S.
camp and, some 30 years ago, recognized Israel.
Impeded by pride, culture and history, Baghdad, Cairo and Damascus will never coexist as partners. Sadat flipped Egypt
because he understood leadership meant either dominating or standing apart from his fellow Arabs. Washington eased
Egypt's transition with more than $1.5 billion in annual U.S. aid; more than $50 billion in sum so far. Iraq flipped, but by
force, at a cost far higher.
Diplomats seeking to flip Assad are asking him to commit political suicide. Syria has less than 20 million citizens to Egypt's
80 million; for Damascus to work in the same coalition as Cairo is to subordinate itself to it. Absent the crisis of resistance,
Assad has little reason to justify rule by his Alawite clan, a minority Shiite sect, among a disenfranchised Sunni Arab
majority.
Aid will not facilitate. For Assad to settle for less than Egypt's aid package, would be to confirm his subordination to Hosni
Mubarak. A higher package is outside reality: Even the most profligate U.S. congressmen cannot stomach another
commitment of $50 billion, an amount that could be driven even higher, once Tehran begins a bidding war for Syrian loyalty.
So, why does Assad flirt with the West? He derives his power from rejection of the West and Israel, but he knows history.
He understands that he can both embrace process and ignore peace. So long as the West conflates diplomacy and
inducement, Assad can pocket irreversible incentives: A reprieve from the Rafik Hariri murder investigation, concessions on
territorial disputes, an end to sanctions and heightened trade.
When the time comes to reciprocate, Assad can walk away, as his father so often did, leaving Washington with far less
leverage than before. Today, Obama's supporters see policy as the difference between good and Bush. They sing change,
but to privilege rhetoric above reality is dangerous hubris.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Syria
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
Israel & the Arabs -- The Israeli-Arab Conflict
The Middle East & the Problem of Iraq
Page Two
Page One
Egypt, Arabs, & the Middle East
The Middle East & the Problem of Iran
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly, a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and a resident
scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical
Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson,
of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition
Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense
(2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem
(2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref
Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale
University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew
University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs.
The foregoing article by Dr. Rubin was originally published in Forbes.Com, November 12, 2008, and
can be found on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum, a foreign policy think tank which seeks to
define and promote American interests in the Middle East, defining U.S. interests to include fighting radical Islam,
working for Palestinian Arab acceptance of the State of Israel, improving the management of U.S. efforts to promote
constitutional democracy in the Middle East, reducing America's energy dependence on the Middle East, more robustly
asserting U.S. interests vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, and countering the Iranian threat.
(Article URL: http://www.meforum.org/article/2008)
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
November 12, 2008
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume X, 2008
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity