THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XI, Issue # 134, May 31, 2009
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
NEW ZEALAND MAY GO BUST OVER GLOBAL WARMING
By Dennis T. Avery
ENVIRONMENTALISM, GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM, ENERGY POLICY, & THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY: THE
HIGHLY PROBABLE ADVERSE IMPACT OF CAP-&-TRADE ENERGY TAXATION ON NEW ZEALAND'S FARM EXPORTS, UPON
WHICH THE COUNTRY'S OVERALL ECONOMY IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT
FULL STORY:
No country in the world would risk as much for “global warming” as New Zealand, if it goes ahead with the
cap-and-trade energy taxation installed by former Prime Minister Helen Elizabeth Clark’s now-departed Labour
Party-Progressive Party coalition government.
New Zealand’s economy is almost completely dependent on its farm exports: lamb, dairy products, beef, and
high-end white wines. Half of New Zealand’s carbon emissions come from cattle and sheep. If New Zealand taxes
its cows and sheep hundreds of dollars per animal for methane emissions and manure handling fees, Argentina
would almost immediately displace New Zealand’s farm exports. Argentina has more grass, more cattle, the
potential for more lambs, a surging wine industry — and no Kyoto Protocol obligations.
Based on U.S. and Australian “discussions,” a 500-cow dairy might have to pay $250,000 per year for cattle
emissions and manure handling permits, plus a hefty increase in its costs for low-carbon electricity and diesel. An
Argentine dairy would pay none of these increased costs — and every dollar of cost differential would be a further
incentive for Argentine dairymen to expand their exports at the expense of New Zealand.
That would leave Kiwi cities like Auckland and Christchurch without visible means of support.
I said this recently to several New Zealand government ministers and business leaders at a private dinner in
Wellington. My message was not welcomed. Prime Minister John Phillip Key’s new National Party government
seems to understand that New Zealand’s economy would be at terrible risk from carbon taxes — but its voters
apparently don’t realize it.
The Clark government told New Zealand voters that the cost of “leading the world” with a carbon tax would be
about $150 per year. That figure is laughably low. The British government now admits its new carbon tax law could
cost as much as $27,000 per United Kingdom family.
The Key government has temporarily suspended the cap-and-trade legislation, but has not dared repeal it.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is installing his own cap-and-trade policy, and playing footsie
with U.S. President Barack Obama on “solidarity” with a U.S. carbon tax. If Australia and the U.S.A. agreed on
some benchmark carbon tax, most New Zealanders would expect their country to join in.
Never mind that the Earth’s global warming stopped after 1998 because the sun has gone into a startling quiet period.
That’s why New Zealand’s many glaciers have been growing recently, instead of receding. Never mind that even full
member compliance with the Kyoto Protocol would “avoid” only about 0.05 degree Celsius of warming over the next
50 years — by the alarmists’ own math.
The urbanites in New Zealand don’t really appreciate the sophisticated management that juggles pastures and feed
crops that produce milk, cheese, and Merino wool. They love the wine, but don’t understand the massive per-acre
investments needed to turn their grapes into award-winning vintages.
Meanwhile, Obama’s U.S. government has just punished New Zealand with trade-distorting dairy export subsidies --
because our corn ethanol program has pushed our cost of dairy feed too high. World corn prices have doubled in real
terms, and may go higher, as our ethanol mandates keep rising. That jacks up the U.S. cost of “alternative fuels” even
further -- while New Zealand will have to file a well-justified case against America under the World Trade Organization
rules.
Ah, what a tangled web we’re weaving, rather than admit the Emperor of Global Warming has no clothes.
SOURCES:
British carbon law costs: Daily Mail, May 5, 2009
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery is an environmental economist, and a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. He
was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable
Global Warming Every 1500 Hundred Years. Readers may write him at PO Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421, or
to the following email address: to cgfi@hughes.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity