THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 20, January 18, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
TURMOIL IN TUNISIA
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
THE OVERTHROW OF ZINE EL ABIDINE BEN ALI & THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN TUNISIA: CONVERGENCE OF NEW FORCES
IN TUNISIA, CREATING AN INFITADA & QUICKLY OUSTING AN ENTRENCHED DICTATOR -- THE ISLAMIST IMPLICATIONS OF
THIS UPHEAVAL -- DOES INTERIM TUNISIAN PRESIDENT FOUAD MEBAZZA, AGE 77, HAVE THE SAVVY OR POLITICAL
CREDIBILITY TO MAINTAIN POWER? WILL THE MILITARY KEEP THE OLD GUARD IN POWER? DO MODERATE FORCES HAVE
THE COHESION & VISION TO DEFLECT AN ISLAMIST SURGE? HOW WOULD AN ISLAMIST TAKEOVER IN TUNISIA IMPACT ON
EUROPE & THE ISLAMIC WORLD? WHAT SHOULD THE U.S.A. DO IN ORDER TO PREVENT THE EMERGENCE OF AN ISLAMIST
TUNISIA?
FULL STORY:
The sudden and, as yet, unexplained exit of Tunisia's strongman, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, 74, after 23 years in power has
potential implications for the Middle East and for Muslims worldwide. As an Egyptian commentator noted, "Every Arab
leader is watching Tunisia in fear. Every Arab citizen is watching Tunisia in hope and solidarity." I watch with both sets
of emotions.
During the first era of independence, until about 1970, governments in Arabic-speaking countries were frequently
overthrown as troops under the control of a discontented colonel streamed into the capital, seized the presidential
quarters and the radio station, then announced a new regime. Syrians endured three coups d'état in 1949 alone.
Over time, regimes learned to protect themselves through overlapping intelligence services, reliance on family and tribal
members, repression, and other mechanisms. Four decades of sclerotic, sterile stability followed. With only rare
exceptions (Iraq in 2003, Gaza in 2007), did regimes get ousted; even more rarely (Sudan in 1985) did civilian dissent have
a significant role.
Enter first Al-Jazeera, which focuses Arab-wide attention on topics of its choosing, and then the Internet.
Beyond its inexpensive, detailed and timely information, the Internet also provides unprecedented secrets (e.g., the
recent WikiLeaks dump of U.S. diplomatic cables), even as it connects the likeminded via Facebook and Twitter. These
new forces converged in Tunisia in December, 2010, to create an intifada and quickly ousted an entrenched tyrant.
If one exalts in the power of the disenfranchised to overthrow their dull, cruel and greedy master, one also looks ahead
with trepidation to the Islamist implications of this upheaval.
The first worry concerns Tunisia itself. For all his faults, Mr. Ben Ali stood stalwart as a foe of Islamism, battling not
only the terrorists but also (somewhat as in pre-2002 Turkey) the soft jihadists in school rooms and in television
studios. A former interior minister, however, he underestimated Islamists, seeing them more as criminals than as
committed ideologues. His not allowing alternate Islamic outlooks to develop could now prove a great mistake.
Tunisian Islamists had a minimal role in overthrowing Mr. Ben Ali, but they will surely scramble to exploit the
opportunity that has opened to them. Indeed, the leader of Tunisia's main Islamist organization, Ennahda, has
announced his first return to the country since 1989. Does Interim President Fouad Mebazaa, 77, have the savvy or
political credibility to maintain power? Will the military keep the old guard in power? Do moderate forces have the
cohesion and vision to deflect an Islamist surge?
The second worry concerns nearby Europe, already deeply incompetent at dealing with its Islamist challenge. Were
Ennahda to take power and then expand networks, provide funds, and perhaps smuggle arms to allies in nearby
Europe, it could greatly exacerbate existing problems there.
The third and greatest worry concerns the possible domino effect on other Arabic-speaking countries. This fast,
seemingly easy, and relatively bloodless coup d'état could inspire globally Islamists to sweep away their own tyrants.
All four North African littoral states – Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Egypt – fit this description, as do Syria, Jordan
and Yemen to the east. That Mr. Ben Ali took refuge in Saudi Arabia implicates that country too. Pakistan could also
fit the template. In contrast to the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, which required a charismatic leader, millions on the
street and a full year's worth of effort, events in Tunisia unfolded quickly and in a more generic, reproducible way.
What Franklin D. Roosevelt allegedly said of a Latin America dictator, "He's a bastard but he's our bastard," applies
to Mr. Ben Ali and many other Arab strongmen, leaving U.S. government policy in seeming disarray. Barack Obama's
ambiguous after-the-fact declaration that he "applaud[s] the courage and dignity of the Tunisian people" can
conveniently be read either as a warning to assorted other "bastards" or as a better-late-than-never recognition of
awkward facts on the ground.
As Washington sorts out options, I urge the U.S. administration to adopt two policies. First, renew the push for
democratization initiated by George W. Bush in 2003, but this time with due caution, intelligence and modesty,
recognizing that his flawed implementation inadvertently facilitated the Islamists to acquire more power. Second,
focus on Islamism as the civilized world's greatest enemy and stand with our allies, including those in Tunisia, to
fight this blight.
© Daniel Pipes 2010
Originally Published in the Washington Times, January 18, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, January 18, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/9326/tunisia-turmoil
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Tunisia, Islamic North Africa, & the Arab World
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
North Africa -- The Arab States of Islamic North Africa
The Middle East & the Arabs
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and Director of the Middle East Forum,
Publisher of Middle East Quarterly,
Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a
signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former
adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free
Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a
former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of
Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.
Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page
Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and
developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington
Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network
television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the
U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately
twenty-five countries.
Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into
American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history
and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the
worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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