LOSING EGYPT
By Alan Caruba
The U.S.A. lost a major ally in the Middle East. The Shah may have been a bastard, but he was our bastard. The CIA had put him on the Peacock Throne.
The uprising in Egypt, if taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood, will severely endanger American interests that have largely been coasting along in the belief that Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak would engineer a smooth transition of power to his son. This was the scenario in Syria when its dictator, Hafiz al-Assad, passed away.
That scenario just went out the window. Given the depth of opposition to Mubarak, it is unlikely power would pass to his son, Jamal, who, with his wife and daughter, have fled to Great Britain. Moreover, since Mubarak has no Vice President, there is a major power vacuum.
The fate of the Suez Canal is the biggest geopolitical concern at this point. A lot of oil transits through it in much the same way it does through the Strait of Hormuz. Years of growing dependency on Middle East oil, while our own vast reserves were locked up and neglected, will demonstrate why the policies of several U.S. administrations have been not just short-sighted, but incredibly stupid.
As big a pain as Saddam Hussein was, I always believed that he was overthrown as much because of his control of Iraqi oil as for any other reason. The U.S.A. backed his war on Iran, until it fizzled after eight years. When he invaded Kuwait, we pushed him back into Iraq. After 9/11, it is likely that the calculation was made that Iraq and the Middle East would be better off without him. His overthrow might also have been seen as an object lesson to others in the region of what happens when Uncle Sam is unhappy.
Mubarak has been “our man” in Egypt since he took over after the assassination in 1981 of Anwar Sadat, who had been killed because he made peace overtures to Israel. Up to then, Egypt had been repeatedly defeated, especially in the Six Day War. After thirty years of dictatorship, Mubarak is hated by most Egyptians for all the usual reasons.
To understand the current unrest in Egypt and elsewhere, it is necessary to understand that most of the population of the Middle East and northern Africa’s Maghreb are young people. They are fed up with the oppression of their governments, with unemployment, with inflation, with the region’s endemic and historic corruption, and its lack of political freedom.
They rioted in Lebanon against Syrian oppression after the assassination of their Prime Minister. They rioted recently against Hezbollah control of Lebanon. Within the past weeks, there have been riots in Tunisia, in Yemen, and now Egypt. It is a contagion.
We are running out of friends in the Middle East. For all of the talk of supporting freedom in the Middle East, the U.S.A. has usually backed its despots. Given our dependency on Middle East oil, we have had very little choice. That’s what happens when you don’t allow drilling in Alaska’s ANWR, anywhere off our coastlines or domestically, where billions of barrels are estimated to exist.
Now, however, we have a President who is VERY different from any that came before him going all the way back to Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower.
A neophyte when it comes to foreign affairs, no matter what nation is involved, Barack Hussein Obama has demonstrated extraordinarily bad instincts and judgment. He has regarded the United States as just one nation among others. He has apologized for the sixty years of relative peace the U.S.A. has provided as global sheriff. He has been eager to “reach out” to Middle Eastern nations. The result is that Obama has appeared weak to everyone.
He failed to speak out strongly in June, 2009, when ordinary Iranians filled Tehran’s streets to protest the despicable and detested ayatollahs that rigged its election in favor of Mamoud Ahmadinejad. He lost a major opportunity, while saying, at the time, that he did not want to “meddle” in Iran’s affairs.
Although he increased combat strength and supported Afghanistan’s Hamid Karzai, the results there have been a predictable failure for a regime that lacks popular support.
Ironically, the only actual and natural ally the U.S.A. has in the Middle East, Israel, has been beaten about with Obama’s absurd demands that it not construct new housing in its own Capitol, Jerusalem.
In the first two years of Obama’s Presidency, it has become obvious to everyone, friend and foe alike, that he is anti-Israel. Perhaps, he was trying to signal some kind of accommodation with Iran? Or maybe he just doesn’t like a Jewish presence in the Islamic Middle East?
That is why the rumor that the U.S.A. will not veto yet another anti-Israel resolution in the UN Security Council worries a lot of people. Failure to do so would make Obama the first U.S. President ever to abandon Israel in the UN.
Throughout the Middle East, people risking their lives for freedom know that if the U.S.A. abandons Israel, it will abandon them.
That is why, also, there can be no accommodation with Iran. Every other nation in the Middle East knows this. Hezbollah and Hamas are both terrorist organizations and both are funded and directed by Iran. It is the single greatest threat to peace in the Middle East. Syria is Iran’s closest ally and agent.
By contrast, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, all monarchies, all protected by the U.S.A., fear Iran.
No Middle Eastern nation is safe, so long as radical Shia Islam is directed from Tehran and operates with impunity in Yemen and in Pakistan.
No nation in the world is safe if Iran acquires nuclear weapons.
If Egypt is lost to the Muslim Brotherhood, as the result of the current insurrection and rebellion, the implications for the U.S.A. and the world would be a major game change.
A lot of nations who found it fashionable to oppose and criticize the U.S.A. as a big military bully are going to be looking to it to enable them to avoid an ugly, expensive, and dangerous future.
On Friday, January 28, the White House released a statement that was made in Platitude Heaven.
Politico.com reported:
“Calling for Egyptian authorities to respect citizen’s right to speech and protest, he said, ‘suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.’ The President also urged the people of Egypt to refrain from violent protest. Obama spoke with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for 30 minutes earlier Friday.”
The problem, of course, is that we have a President who is intellectually, emotionally, philosophically, and, in all other ways, not up to this crisis.
© Alan Caruba, 2011
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
North Africa -- The Arab States of Islamic North Africa
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
Alan Caruba writes a daily post at http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com. An author, commentator and business and science writer,
he is the Founder of the National Anxiety Center, a clearinghouse for information about "scare campaigns" designed to influence
public opinion and public policy.
Africa: Black Africa *
Africa: North Africa *
American Government 1
LINKS TO PARTICULAR ISSUES & SUBJECT MATTER CATEGORIES
TREATED IN THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, U.S.A.:
American Government 2 *
American Government 3 *
American Government 4
American Government 5 *
American Politics *
Anglosphere *
Arabs
Arms Control & WMD *
Aztlan Separatists *
Big Government
Black Africa *
Bureaucracy *
Canada *
China *
Civil Liberties *
Communism
Congress, U.S. *
Conservative Groups *
Conservative vs. Liberal
Constitutional Law *
Counterterrorism *
Criminal Justice *
Disloyalty *
Economy
Education *
Elections, U.S. *
Eminent Domain *
Energy & Environment
English-Speaking World *
Ethnicity & Race *
Europe *
Europe: Jews
Family Values *
Far East *
Fiscal Policy, U.S. *
Foreign Aid, U.S. *
Foreign Policy, U.S.
France *
Germany *
Hispanic Separatism *
Hispanic Treason *
Human Health *
Immigration *
Infrastructure, U.S. *
Intelligence, U.S. *
Iran *
Iraq *
Islamic North Africa
Islamic Threat *
Islamism *
Israeli vs. Arabs *
Jews & Anti-Semitism
Jihad & Jihadism *
Jihad Manifesto I *
Jihad Manifesto II *
Judges, U.S. Federal
Judicial Appointments *
Judiciary, American *
Latin America *
Latino Separatism
Latino Treason *
Lebanon *
Leftists/Liberals *
Legal Issues
Local Government, U.S. *
Marriage & Family *
Media Political Bias
Middle East: Arabs *
Middle East: Iran *
Middle East: Iraq *
Middle East: Israel
Middle East: Lebanon *
Middle East: Syria *
Middle East: Tunisia
Middle East: Turkey *
Militant Islam *
Military Defense *
Military Justice
Military Weaponry *
Modern Welfare State *
Morality & Decency
National Identity *
National Security *
Natural Resources *
News Media Bias
North Africa *
Patriot Act, USA *
Patriotism *
Political Culture *
Political Ideologies
Political Parties *
Political Philosophy *
Politics, American *
Presidency, U.S.
Private Property *
Property Rights *
Public Assistance *
Radical Islam
Religion & America *
Rogue States & WMD *
Russia *
Science & Ethics
Sedition & Treason *
Senate, U.S. *
Social Welfare Policy *
South Africa
State Government, U.S. *
Subsaharan Africa *
Subversion *
Syria *
Terrorism 1
Terrorism 2 *
Treason & Sedition *
Tunisia *
Turkey *
Ukraine
UnAmerican Activity *
UN & Its Agencies *
USA Patriot Act *
U.S. Foreign Aid
U.S. Infrastructure *
U.S. Intelligence *
U.S. Senate *
War & Peace
Welfare Policy *
WMD & Arms Control
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor