THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 45, February 15, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
EGYPT'S CHANCE FOR CHANGE
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
THE MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT IN EGYPT & THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL FUTURE: THE MILITARY LEADERSHIP'S
WEIGHTY RESPONSIBILITY OF SHEPHERDING THE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION TOWARD FRUITION OF THE POPULAR DEMANDS
FOR POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY, THE RULE OF LAW, INDIVIDUAL LIBERTY, & ECONOMIC PROSPERITY -- CAN THE
ISLAMISTS BE PREVENTED FROM SEIZING CONTROL OF EGYPT? HAS EGYPT'S MILITARY LEADERSHIP LEARNED &
MATURED ENOUGH TO GOVERN THE COUNTRY EFFECTIVELY & HONESTLY? DOES IT REALIZE THAT CONTINUING TO
PURSUE ITS SELFISH INTERESTS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DECAY & CORRUPTION?
FULL STORY:
If developments in Egypt have gone as well as one could hope for, future prospects remain unclear. The exciting part is
over, now come the worries.
Let's start with three pieces of good news: Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's strongman who appeared on the brink of fomenting
disaster, fortunately resigned. The Islamists, who would push Egypt in the direction of Iran, had little role in recent
events and remain distant from power. And the military, which has ruled Egypt from behind the scenes since 1952, is
the institution best equipped to adapt the government to the protestors' demands.
Now, for the problems. The military itself represents the lesser problem. In charge for six decades, it has made a mess of
things. Tarek Osman, an Egyptian writer, eloquently demonstrates in a new book, Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser
to Mubarak (Yale University Press), how precipitously Egypt's standing has declined. Whatever index one chooses,
from standard of living to soft-power influence, Egypt today lags behind its monarchical predecessor. Osman contrasts
the worldly Cairo of the 1950s to the "crowded, classic third-world city" of today. He also despairs how the country
"that was a beacon of tranquility … has turned into the Middle East's most productive breeding ground of aggression."
The Muslim Brotherhood represents the larger problem. Founded in 1928, the world's leading Islamist organization has
long avoided confrontation with the government and shies from revealing its ambition to carry out an Islamic revolution
in Egypt. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad articulated this hope for it, when he claimed that due to developments
in Egypt, "a new Middle East is emerging without the Zionist regime and U.S. interference." In a bitter appraisal,
Mubarak himself focused on this same danger: "We see the democracy the United States spearheaded in Iran and with
Hamas, in Gaza, and that's the fate of the Middle East … extremism and radical Islam."
For its part, the U.S. Obama administration naively expressed no such concerns. Barack Obama downplayed the threat
of the Muslim Brotherhood, calling it but "one faction in Egypt," while his Director of National Intelligence, James
Clapper, actually praised the Brotherhood as "a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed
violence" and pursues "a betterment of the political order in Egypt."
This nonsense points to a U.S. policy in deep disarray. In June, 2009, during a would-be revolution against a hostile
regime in Iran, the Obama administration stayed mum, hoping thereby to win Tehran's good will. But, with Mr. Mubarak,
a friendly dictator under assault, it effectively adopted George W. Bush's impatient "freedom agenda" and supported
the opposition. President Obama seemingly encourages street demonstrators only against our side.
American pressure, steady and gradual, recognizing that the democratization process implies a vast transformation of
society and requires not months but decades, is needed to open the system.
What next for Egypt, and will the Muslim Brotherhood take over?
Something remarkable, unpredictable, and unprecedented took place in recent weeks on Egyptian streets. A leaderless
mass movement galvanized large numbers of ordinary citizens, as in Tunisia days earlier. It did not rage against
foreigners, scapegoat minority Egyptians, nor endorse a radical ideology; instead, it demanded accountability, liberty,
and prosperity. Reports reaching me from Cairo suggest a historic turn toward patriotism, inclusion, secularism, and
personal responsibility.
For confirmation, consider two polls: A 2008 study by Lisa Blaydes and Drew Linzer found 60 percent of Egyptians
hold Islamist views. But a Pechter Middle East Poll last week found only 15 percent of Cairenes and Alexandrians
"approve" of the Muslim Brotherhood and about 1 percent support a Brotherhood president of Egypt. Another
indicator of this seismic change: the Brotherhood, in retreat, has played down its political ambitions, with Yusuf
al-Qaradawi going to far as to declare that preserving Egyptians' freedom has more importance than implementing
Islamic law.
No one can say, at this early date, where this revolution in attitudes came from or where it leads, but it is today's happy
reality. The military leadership now bears the weighty responsibility of shepherding it to fruition. Three men in
particular bear close watching, Vice President Omar Suleiman, Defense Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, and
Chief of Staff Sami Hafez Enan. We shall soon see whether the military leadership has learned and matured, and if it
realizes that continuing to pursue its selfish interests will lead to further decay.
© Daniel Pipes 2011
Originally Published in the Washington Times, February 15, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, February 15, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/9474/egypt-chance
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Egypt, Arabs, & the Middle East
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
North Africa -- The Arab States of Islamic North Africa
The Middle East & the Arabs
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and Director of the Middle East Forum,
Publisher of Middle East Quarterly,
Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a
signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former
adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free
Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a
former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of
Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.
Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page
Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and
developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington
Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network
television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the
U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately
twenty-five countries.
Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into
American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history
and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the
worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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