THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 78, March 29, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
FOUR MIDDLE EASTERN UPHEAVALS
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
REVOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST: UPRISINGS IN LIBYA, EGYPT, SYRIA, & YEMEN -- CAN THE NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
OF THE U.S.A. SUCESSFULLY PROMOTE CONSTITUTIONAL & GOVERNMENTAL REFORM IN THOSE COUNTRIES, PREVENTING
THE ISLAMISTS FROM ACQUIRING POLITICAL CONTROL OVER THE FOUR MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES? CAN
CONSTITUIONAL DEMOCRACY BE ESTABLISHED THERE, OR WILL THE COUNTRIES CONTINUE TO BE RULED BY
AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES, WHETHER ISLAMIST OR TRADITIONAL MILITARY OR MONARCHICAL?
FULL STORY:
After decades of stasis, the Middle East is in uproar. With too much going on to focus on a single place, here's a review
of developments in four key countries.
Libya: With most Americans not quite realizing it, their government haphazardly went to war on March 19, 2011,
fighting Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi's Libya. Hostilities were barely acknowledged, covered with euphemism ("kinetic military
action, particularly on the front end"), and without a clear goal. Two Obama administration principals were out of the
country – the President in Chile, the Secretary of State in France. Members of Congress, not consulted, responded angrily
across the political spectrum. Some analysts discerned a precedent for militarily attacking Israel.
Perhaps, Obama will be lucky and Qaddafi will collapse quickly. But no one knows who the rebels are and the open-ended
effort could well become protracted, costly, terroristic, and politically unpopular. If so, Libya risks becoming Obama's Iraq
– or worse, if Islamists take over the country.
Obama wants the United States to be "one of the partners among many" in Libya and wishes he were President of China,
suggesting that this war offers a grand experiment for the U.S. government to pretend it is Belgium. I admit to some
sympathy for this approach; in 1997, I complained that, time and again, because Washington rushed in and took
responsibility for maintaining order, "The American adult rendered others child-like." I urged Washington to show more
reserve, letting others come to it and request assistance.
That's what Obama, in his clumsy and ill-prepared way, has done. The results will surely influence future U.S. policy.
Egypt: The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces sponsored a constitutional referendum on March 19, 2010, that
passed 77-23. It has had the effect of boosting the Muslim Brotherhood as well as remnants of Hosni Mubarak's National
Democratic Party, while shunting aside the Tahrir Square secularists. In so doing, the new military leadership confirmed its
intention to continue with the government's subtle, but long-standing, collusion with Islamists.
Two facts underpin this collusion: Egypt has been ruled by the military since a 1952 coup d'état; and the socalled Free
Officers who carried off that coup themselves had close ties to the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood.
The spirit of Tahrir Square was real and may eventually prevail; but, for now, it's business as usual in Egypt, with the
government continuing Mubarak's familiar quasi-Islamist line.
Syria: Hafez al-Assad ruled the country for thirty years (1970-2000) with brutality and nonpareil cunning. Seized
by monarchical pretensions, he bequeathed the Presidency to his 34-year-old son, Bashar. Training to become an
ophthalmologist, Bashar joined the family business under duress, only after the death of his more capable brother Basil in
1994, basically maintaining his father's megalomaniac policies, thereby extending the country's stagnancy, repression, and
poverty.
As 2011's winds of change reached Syria, crowds yelling Suriya, hurriya ("Syria, freedom") lost their fear of the baby
dictator. Panicked, Bashar wove between violence and appeasement. If the Assad dynasty meets its demise, this will have
potentially ruinous consequences for the minority Alawi community from which it derives. Sunni Islamists who have the
inside track to succeed the Assads will probably withdraw Syria from the Iranian-led "resistance" bloc, meaning that a
change of regime will have mixed implications for the West, and for Israel especially.
Yemen: Yemen presents the greatest likelihood of regime overthrow and the greatest chance of Islamists gaining
power. However deficient an autocrat and however circumscribed his power, the wily Ali Abdullah Saleh, in office since
1978, has been about as good an ally the West could hope for, notwithstanding his ties to Saddam Hussein and the Islamic
Republic of Iran, to exert control over the hinterlands, limit incitement, and fight Al-Qa'ida.
His incompetent handling of protests has alienated even the military leadership (from which he comes) and his own Hashid
tribe, suggesting he will leave power with little control over what follows him. Given the country's tribal structure, the
widespread distribution of arms, the Sunni-Shi'i divide, the mountainous terrain and impeding drought, an Islamist-tinged
anarchy (as in Afghanistan) looms as a likely outcome.
In Libya, Syria, and Yemen – but less so in Egypt – Islamists have opportunities significantly to expand their power. How
well will the former Muslim inhabiting the U.S. White House [1], so adamant about "mutual respect" in U.S. relations with
Muslims, protect Western interests against this threat?
NOTE:
[1] FoxNews.com changed this phrase to "How well will our President, the current occupant of the White House. . .?"
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
Counterterrorism & U.S. National Security
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Efraim Karsh, Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and author most recently of the book, Islamic
Imperialism: A History (New Haven & London: Yale University Press, 2007), is Professor and Head of the
Department of Middle East and
Mediterranean Studies at King's College, University of London, U.K. A graduate in Arabic and Modern Middle
East History from Hebrew University in Jerusalem and holding the M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in International Relations
from Tel Aviv University, Dr. Karsh has held academic posts at Harvard University, Columbia University, the
Sorbonne, the London School of Economics, Helsinki University, the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies in Washington, D.C., and the Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Founder and Editor of the scholarly journal Israel Affairs, Dr. Karsh has written extensively on Middle East
politics, Soviet foreign policy, and European affairs. A regular media commentator, he has appeared on U.K. and U.S.
television and radio and contributed articles to leading newspapers in Britain and the U.S.A., among them the Wall
Street Journal, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Daily Telegraph, and The
Times (of London).
The foregoing article by Dr. Efraim Karsh was originally published in Fox News.com, March 29, 2011, and
can be found on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum, a foreign policy think tank which seeks to
define and promote American interests in the Middle East, defining U.S. interests to include fighting radical Islam,
working for Palestinian Arab acceptance of the State of Israel, improving the management of U.S. efforts to promote
constitutional democracy in the Middle East, reducing America's energy dependence on the Middle East, more robustly
asserting U.S. interests vis-ŕ-vis Saudi Arabia, and countering the Iranian threat.
(URL: http://www.meforum.org/9630/middle-eastern- upheavals)
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
March 29, 2011
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume XIII, 2011
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity