THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 111, May 3, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
WHAT IS ISRAEL'S NEXT MOVE IN THE NEW MIDDLE EAST?
By Dr. Daniel Pipes
ISRAEL & THE CURRENT MIDDLE EASTERN UPHEAVALS: ISRAEL SURROUNDED BY A NEWLY UNSTABLE ARAB
WORLD -- ISRAEL FACING UNCERTAINTY ON EVERY FRONT -- HOW SHOULD ISRAEL WEATHER THE STORMS UNLEASHED
BY THE SOCALLED "ARAB SPRING"? HOW MIGHT THE PRESENT SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST IMPACT ON THE
TACTICS OF THE PALESTINIAN ARABS? HOW COULD THIS SHIFT IN PALESTINIAN BEHAVIOR BE TO ISRAEL'S
DETRIMENT? WHAT MUST ISRAEL DO IN ORDER TO AVOID SUCH AN OUTCOME?
FULL STORY:
Moment Magazine asked: "In recent months, the Middle East has been set aflame by democratic uprisings,
popular protests, brutal crackdowns, political upheaval and international military intervention, shattering conventional
wisdom about the region. Israel — surrounded by a newly unstable Arab world and confronting a Palestinian march
toward statehood — faces uncertainty on every front. How should Israel weather the storms unleashed by the 'Arab
Spring'?"
Daniel Pipes's response:
The current Middle Eastern upheavals are mercifully not about Israel. Anti-Zionism has been a minor, even negligible
part. I find it remarkable, in fact, how small a role Israel has played. And, in general, Israel benefits by having attention
elsewhere. The Israeli government should stay out of the way, as it correctly has.
The current upheaval may prompt Palestinians to conclude that violence doesn't take them where they want to go and
they might emulate others in the region by shifting away from warfare and terrorism, in favor of non-violent political
action. That could include massive non-violent demonstrations such as marching on Israeli towns, borders, and
checkpoints.
Ironically, this shift could be to Israel's detriment. In some ways, it has benefited from Palestinian violence. That's, in
part, because violence is ugly and, in part, because Israelis have proven themselves more capable in the military realm
than the political one. A shift to the political realm could transform the conflict to Israel's detriment. I don't think the
shift creates an opportunity for Israel because the Palestinian Arab goal remains unchanged: elimination of the Jewish
state.
I hope Israelis are preparing to contend with this phenomenon, from gathering intelligence to training troops to deal
with demonstrators to responding with smart political arguments. The last point is especially important. In the past,
Arab leaders ranted and made preposterous arguments, but now they're getting better, more rational, more appealing.
Their political campaign of delegitimization will likely reach new heights with a General Assembly resolution in
September, 2011.
© Daniel Pipes 2011
Originally Published in Moment Magazine, May/June, 2011
Republished with the Permission of Daniel Pipes
Reprinted from the Daniel Pipes Mailing List, May 3, 2011
URL: http://www.danielpipes.org/9759/israel-new-middle-east
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Israel & the Arabs -- The Israeli-Arab Conflict
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
Islamism & Jihadism -- Radical Islam & Islamic Terrorism
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
International Politics & World Disorder:
War, Peace, & Geopolitics in the Real World:
Foreign Affairs & U.S. National Security
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Daniel Pipes, a Ph.D. in Islamic History (Harvard University, 1978), is Founder and Director of the Middle East Forum,
Publisher of Middle East Quarterly,
Founder of Campus Watch, Taube Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a
signatory of the Project for the New American Century, a former board member of the U.S. Institute of Peace, a former
adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a Golden Circle supporter of the U.S. Committee for a Free
Lebanon, a former member of the U.S. Department of Defense Special Task Force on Terrorism and Technology, and a
former lecturer at the U.S. Naval War College, Harvard University, the University of Chicago, and the University of
Pennsylvania. Dr. Pipes was the Director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute from 1986 to 1993.
Author or co-author of eighteen books, Dr. Pipes is a regular columnist for National Review Online, Front Page
Magazine, the New York Sun, and the Jerusalem Post. His analyses of world trends and of forces and
developments in the Middle East have appeared in numerous North American newspapers, including the Washington
Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He frequently appears on American network
television, as well as at universities and think tanks, to discuss the Middle East, Islam, and the Islamist threat to the
U.S.A. and the West. He also has appeared on BBC and Al Jazeera, and has lectured in approximately
twenty-five countries.
Dr. Pipes is a Polish-American Jew whose parents fled Poland in 1939, immigrated to the U.S.A., and assimilated well into
American society and culture. His father is Richard Pipes, an American historian specializing in Russian and Soviet history
and serving as Professor of History at Harvard University from 1950 until his retirement in 1996. During the Cold War, the
worldview of Richard Pipes was strongly anti-Soviet and anti-Communist.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity