THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIII, Issue # 133, May 24, 2011
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
ARE CLIMATE MODELS LYING ABOUT FOOD TOO?
By Dennis T. Avery
GLOBAL WARMING, BIG DROUGHTS, & AGRICULTURE: HOW CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT ON THE WORLD'S FOOD
PRODUCTION -- DROUGHT AS THE REAL ENEMY OF FOOD PRODUCTION -- THE BIG DROUGHTS OCCURRING MORE OFTEN
DURING THE "LITTLE ICE AGES" THAN DURING THE GOOD WEATHER OF THE GLOBAL WARMINGS -- GLOBAL WARMINGS AS
THE GOOD TIMES FOR HUMANS, CROPS, & WILDLIFE -- THE REAL FOOD CHALLENGE: THE NEED FOR THE WORLD TO
NEARLY DOUBLE ITS FARM OUTPUT IN THE NEXT 40 SHORT YEARS, TO MEET A LAST, MODERATE INCREASE IN
POPULATION, AS WELL AS A HUGE SURGE IN AFFLUENCE
FULL STORY:
Computer models at Stanford University have just “told” us that man-made global warming has already sapped some of
the yield potential from our food crops. They say wheat yields would have been 5.5 percent higher since 1980 without
the earthly warming; corn yields would have been 3.8 percent higher.
Stanford’s computers apparently didn’t tell their programmers that U.S. corn yields have actually risen by more than 60
percent since 1980, during a period when they were supposedly hampered by too much heat. Wheat yields rose 14
percent, aided by higher levels of CO2, which act like fertilizer for plants.
In fact, if you’re worried about global food production, don’t pay much attention to this study. Recall that our recent
temperatures have recently been about the same as in 1980 and 1981. Net warming since 1940 is only about 0.2 degrees
Celsius. Those are not numbers that would frighten a plant breeder, who understands that all of the wild species have
proven they can handle climate changes of at least 4 degrees Celsius with little problem.
Computer models only work if they have been programmed with adequate information. The computerized climate models,
for example, claim that the earth’s recent warming is “unprecedented.” However, nobody told the computers about the
Medieval Warming (950-1200 AD) and the Roman Warming (200 BC-600 AD), both warmer than today.
Moreover, our corn, wheat, and rice are all originally tropical crops.
Corn originated in the hot, wet lowlands of Mexico, and didn’t
get cold-tolerant enough for the Corn Belt until after 4,000
years of careful seed selection by many generations of farmers.
Wheat was native to the Fertile Crescent — the hot, dry
regions of Palestine and Israel. In the Punjab region today, it
tolerates Summer temperatures as high as 100 degrees
Fahrenheit.
Rice evolved in the Yangtze River Valley of China, where
Summer temperatures also rise above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
But rice thrives, too, in Manchuria at Summer temperatures of
only 80 degrees.
Drought, not temperature, has been the real enemy of food production, around the world and over time. The big droughts
have come more often during the “Little Ice Ages” than during the predominantly good weather of the global warmings.
The warmings have been the good times, for humans, crops, and wildlife.
Over the last 4000 years, the region of Iraq has had droughts as long as 300 years during “Little Ice Ages.” Its cities and
fields were abandoned, left to nomadic shepherds. Egypt suffered only 8 percent of its Nile floods below-normal during
the Medieval Warming, but 38 percent below-normal floods during the Little Ice Age. Closer to home, California had two
century-long droughts during the Medieval Warming. Perhaps the computers should be programmed to look for shifting
rain patterns and not worry about a 0.2 degree shift in temperature.
The real food challenge? The world will need to nearly double its farm output in the next 40 short years, to meet a last,
moderate increase in population — and a huge surge in affluence. The rising incomes will have everybody in the world
bidding for a high-quality diet. We’ll need all the technology research can muster, including drought-resistant crops.
Otherwise, food prices will soar and wildlife habitat will disappear under innumerable plows.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Agriculture, the Economy, & Human Health & Welfare:
Policy Issues Relating to Food Production & Consumption
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
The Earth's Natural History, Global Climate Changes,
& the Future of Human Life & Civilization on the Planet:
Science, Ideology, & Public Policy
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Dennis T. Avery, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., is an environmental economist. He was
formerly a senior analyst for the U.S. Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global
Warming Every 1500 Years. Readers may write to him at PO Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 2442; or send email to
cgfi@hughes.net. Visit our website at www. cgfi.org
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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