THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIV, Issue # , 2012
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
WHY OBAMA WILL LOSE IN NOVEMBER
By Alan Caruba
THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY, THE CONDITION OF THE U.S.A., & OBAMA'S REELECTION CHANCES: THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, THE U.S. NATIONAL DEBT, &
OBAMACARE -- LIBERALISM, CONSERVATISM, & THE REACTION OF AMERICAN VOTERS TO THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S APPALLING FAILURES -- THE
COMING ELECTION OF NOVEMBER 6, 2012, & OBAMA'S DEFEAT IN HIS BID FOR REELECTION AS U.S. PRESIDENT
FULL STORY:
I received a campaign letter from Michelle Obama the other day. This is especially surprising because I am a registered Republican -- hardly a likely prospect to
contribute to her husband’s presidential reelection efforts.
“Every day I learn about the challenges and the struggles — the doctor bills they can’t pay or the mortgage they can no longer afford,” said the text. The
“fairness” theme, a socialist meme, was expressed. “American prospers when we are all in this together, when hard work pays off and responsibility is rewarded,
when everyone — from Main Street to Wall Street — does their fair share and plays by the same rules.”
The fact is, however, America has not been prospering for the last four years during which Barack Obama has been President. And everyone knows it. The U.S.
sovereign debt rating was downgraded for the first time while he occupied the Oval Office. Federal spending (25% of GDP) is the highest since World War Two.
Federal debt (67% of GDP) is the highest since just after the end of World War Two, and the nation has experienced, not only the longest recession, but the
highest unemployment since the 1930s.
In the first nineteen months of his time in office, Obama added more federal debt than was amassed by all U.S. Presidents from George Washington to Ronald
Reagan.
I have two theories about the November 6, 2012, presidential election: (1) That it will be an overwhelming defeat for Obama or (2) that it will be so close we could
see a situation comparable to the Bush-Kerry election in 2004. Had John Kerry won, the Vice President would have been John Edwards, who was carrying on an
affair during that campaign and who currently faces jail for misuse of campaign funds.
Obama’s Achilles’ heel is, of course, Obamacare. As Robert Bluey of the Heritage Foundation notes, recent polls indicate that 53% of Americans favor repeal
and more than half (57%) say that the Supreme Court should strike it down as unconstitutional. Fully 60% of physicians believe the law will have a negative
impact on overall patient care.
The Congressional Budget Office revisited Obamacare this past week and concluded that 20 million Americans could lose their employer-sponsored health
benefits and 49 million more Americans could become dependent on government-sponsored health care. Projecting through 2022, Obamacare could cost as
much as $2.134 billion and the employer-mandate penalties could hit $221 billion.
There’s another reason why Michelle Obama was writing to me last week. As Karl Rove noted in a Wall Street Journal March 14, 2012, commentary,
“Many of Mr. Obama’s 2008 donors are reluctant to give again” to his campaign. “As the Obama campaign itself reported, fewer than 7% of 2008 donors
renewed their support in the first quarter of his re-election campaign, well below the typical renewal rate.
The Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee are burning through current donations so fast that the White House has told this year’s
congressional candidates that they will not receive any funding support for their campaigns because Obama needs all the money.
While Obama’s 2012 campaign is already showing signs of stress, other issues will impose great pressure. Unemployment affects most American families either
directly or because some member of the family or a friend is unemployed. Even the unemployed vote!
The price of gasoline continues to rise and there is nothing the White House can do to reduce it. Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that exists
for use only in an emergency will not do it, and Americans are well aware that the Obama administration has opposed or thwarted every effort to drill for more oil
on federal lands. The failures of “green energy” companies that have cost Americans billions in loan guarantees are well known. A President who hypes “algae”
as an energy solution will be seen as a fool and/or a complete charlatan.
Recent polls indicate how close the 2012 election may be. Obama has lost ground among female voters. In a head-to-head match-up with Mitt Romney, women
voters back Obama 49%, but that is seven points lower than 2008. A Rasmussen poll found that 59% of likely voters asked whether Obama is more Liberal or
more Conservative than they are answered that he was more Liberal. Of these likely voters, 65% who are also union members thought Obama was more Liberal
than themselves.
Polling firms have been asking Americans to self identify themselves as Conservative or Liberal for decades. In February, 2012, Gallup polling revealed “that in
every single state, with the exception of Massachusetts,” Conservatives outnumbered Liberals. The Battleground Poll conducted by George Washington
University in collaboration with Democratic and Republican polling organizations found that 58% of Americans described themselves as “very Conservative” or
“somewhat Conservative,” while only 37% described themselves as “very Liberal” or “somewhat Liberal.”
A Conservative campaign message will win in 2012, and this explains why the Republican primaries are all about each candidate for the GOP nomination striving
to describe himself as a “true Conservative.”
Even the mainstream media show indications of less Obama support. When even the Washington Post rejects Obama’s lies about U.S. oil reserves, as it
did on March 15th., it suggests there may be a growing, wider level of disenchantment with the man they embraced in 2008.
Obama will lose in November. It may be a very close election or it may be an overwhelming rejection, but the polling numbers and the state of the economy will
be the deciding factors.
Memo to Michelle Obama: The “fairness” message is not working. The appalling failures — “stimulus” anyone? — of Obama’s first term will ensure that there
will be no second term.
© Alan Caruba, 2012
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
American Politics, Political Competition, & the Control of
Public Policy: Elections, Political Parties, Political Factions,
Ideologies, & Special Interest Groups
American Government & the U.S. Presidency:
Presidential Politics & National Leadership
The American Political System:
Politics & Government in the U.S.A.
The American Political & Cultural Left:
Liberals, Statists, Socialists, Marxists, & Other Leftists:
The Democratic Party, Academia, & the Mainstream Media
Fiscal Policy: Taxation, Government Spending, & the Public Debt
Political Economy -- Philosophies, Systems, & Public Policies:
Government, the Economy, & Economic Prosperity
Social Welfare Policy -- The Modern Welfare State
Liberalism Versus Conservatism in American Politics
Political Environmentalism Versus Human Progress & Prosperity:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Alan Caruba's commentaries are posted daily at Warning Signs, his popular blog -- and thereafter on dozens of other
websites and blogs. His monthly report on new books is posted at Bookviews.
A business and science writer, Caruba is the Founder of The National Anxiety Center, a clearinghouse for information
about "scare campaigns" designed to influence public opinion and policy.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity