THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XIV, Issue # 99, May 9, 2012
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
GAY MARRIAGE IS OBAMA'S POISON PILL
By Alan Caruba
U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA'S LATEST POSITION REGARDING GAY MARRIAGE & THE POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT POSITION: OBAMA IS NOW
TRAPPED BETWEEN LEFTWING LIBERALS WHO FAVOR GAY MARRIAGE & A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN OF SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE VOTERS WHO OPPOSE GAY
MARRIAGE. THE TWO GROUPS OF VOTERS ARE LIKELY TO DECIDE THE 2012 ELECTION. OBAMA FACES AN UPHILL STRUGGLE FOR REELECTION TO THE OFFICE OF
PRESIDENT.
FULL STORY:
Let the chatteratti and political pundits say what they will, dancing around the issue of gay marriage on Barack Obama’s chances of reelection as U.S. President, but
I will tell you plainly that he has swallowed a poison pill.
Gay marriage is a deal-breaker for a vast swath of American voters that includes Catholics, as well as the black and Hispanic communities. Urbanites and
suburbanites may say that they are okay with gay marriage, but what they tell pollsters and what they say privately among friends and family is far different.
Americans may want to be tolerant, but their distaste for the gay lifestyle and incessant demands for acceptance is deeply offensive to most people.
Thanks to what will be seen as a historic gaffe by Vice President Joe Biden, the President was put in a vice as he was seen to vacillate — evolve — his position
regarding gay marriage, but elections often turn on such issues. Yes, the economy will be the dominant issue of the 2012 election, but the President found himself in
a position where he could not avoid taking a position. It was diametrically different from the one he expressed in the 2008 campaign.
If, as anticipated, pro-gay-marriage activists get a plank in the Democratic Party National Platform affirming their stance, that will further lock the party into an
uncompromising position on the issue. Ironically, Democrats will hold their 2012 National Convention in North Carolina, a state that just made headlines by
resoundingly rejecting gay marriage.
Legalized same-sex marriage exists in just eight states and the District of Columbia. In purely political terms, the swing states Obama needs for reelection — Ohio,
Virginia, Colorado, and Florida — have all banned gay marriage. Now add North Carolina.
For the record, I have little faith in the polls that seem to suggest that gay marriage is gaining wider acceptance. People who do not feel comfortable being labeled
“homophobes” and bigots tend to tell pollsters they are okay with gay marriage, even if they are not.
The much-quoted Gallop poll on gay rights noted that the Catholic Church opposes same-sex marriage and “less than half of Protestants approve.”
According to the poll, among those who attend religious services weekly, fully 67 percent oppose it, while, among those who say they attend monthly, 53 percent
oppose it.
Politically, while a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that gay marriage is supported by two-thirds of Democrats, it also showed that only 46
percent of independents favored it. Asking Democrats to endorse gay marriage is, in a sense, a no-brainer, but, in an election year, the issue will drive
independents to the Right, a losing proposition for Democrats and Obama.
Incensed by Obamacare, the issue that ignited the creation of the Tea Party movement, by the failed stimulus, by scandals involving “green energy” companies
that cost Americans millions, by "Fast and Furious," an Obama administration sponsored gun-running operation, and the sluggish economic “recovery,” Obama
already faces an uphill battle for reelection.
While trying to hang the “flip-flopper” anvil around Mitt Romney’s neck, Obama has demonstrated a major flip-flop from his earlier position that marriage is
“between and a man and a woman.”
Romney has never wavered on gay marriage, opposing it. You can begin to put the undecided votes in his column.
Even in California where Proposition 8 passed 52 percent to 48 percent, a gay rights measure was struck down by the courts and currently is making its way
through the appeals process. In 2006, Arizona similarly passed a gay marriage measure by a slim 51 percent, but voted two years later to ban it.
Obama is now trapped between Liberals who favor gay marriage and a significant margin of socially Conservative voters who oppose it. They are likely to decide
the 2012 election.
The non-partisan Battleground poll, over a span of the last ten years, has found that 60 percent of Americans call themselves “very Conservative” or
“somewhat Conservative.” That’s compared with 36 percent who call themselves “very Liberal” or “somewhat Liberal.”
Obama has always been pro-gay rights. His administration has members who are either gay or favor gay rights initiatives. After Obama’s pro-gay marriage
statement, his Secretary of Education, Arne Duncan, lent his support, but, before being exposed and forced out from his position as DOE’s Director of the Safe
and Drug Free Schools program, Kevin Jennings was the founder of the radical Gay, Lesbian, Straight Education Network.
Former President Bill Clinton ran into a firestorm of resistance when he said he thought gays should be allowed to serve in the military. Obama got rid of the
“Don’t ask, don’t tell” compromise.
Political pundits are a cautious lot. They know a lot can happen between now and Election Day. While the economy will unquestionably be the over-riding issue
in November, the issue of gay marriage is not going to go away. Gay marriage will be the final nail in Obama’s political coffin.
© Alan Caruba
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Marriage, Family, & Society
Morality, Decency, & Traditional American Family Values
Alan Caruba's commentaries are posted daily at Warning Signs, his popular blog -- and thereafter on dozens of other
websites and blogs. His monthly report on new books is posted at Bookviews.
A business and science writer, Caruba is the Founder of The National Anxiety Center, a clearinghouse for information
about "scare campaigns" designed to influence public opinion and public policy.
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity