THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume V, Issue # 99, April 6, 2003
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
THE DESPOTIC REGIME IN SYRIA:
IS IT THE NEXT TO BE ELIMINATED BY AMERICAN & COALITION FORCES?
By Alan Caruba
First Iraq, but is Syria next?
The Middle East's lack of constitutional democracy was demonstrated in the way, upon the death of Hafez al-Assad on June 10, 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad was anointed the new president. Syria today is just another Middle Eastern absolute monarchy, with the outward trappings of being a constitutional republic, or constitutional representative government. Syria is the al-Assad family business.
As the war in Iraq plays out to its inevitable conclusion, Syria has been warned by U.S. Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, to stop providing aid across its borders.
"The logical thing," Bashar told the pro-Syrian daily, Al-Safir, published in Lebanon, "is to implement the Arab Defense Agreement. According to this agreement, if an Arab country is invaded, the rest of the Arab countries should defend it." Bashar apparently hasn't noticed that a number of Arab nations are openly or covertly supporting the Amer- ican invasion of Iraq in order to rid the region of the greatest threat to their security.
When asked if Syria feels threatened by the Iraq war, Bashar replied, "As long as Israel exists, the threat exists." Pardon me, but this war is not about Israel, but about the re- gime of Saddam Hussein. Bashar, like all Arabs cannot see any issue in any other con- text than the existence of Israel, but at least he is rational enough to know that Syria is "weak in comparison to a super-power."
When it was pointed out that Syria could become a target of the Americans if it did not heed our warnings, Bashar said "That means we are not going to wait until they include Syria in the plan." The smart thing would be to stay on the sidelines, but surely even Bashar must know the U.S.A. would squash him like a bug. Or maybe not?
In an analysis for the Middle East Quarterly, Eyal Zisser, says "Not only does Bashar lack maturity, experience and self-confidence, Syria-watchers generally agree that Bashar also lacks charisma and leadership qualities."
"In the Arab world, Bashar's instant rise to power was received with undisguised deri- sion toward the man himself as well as the Syrian Socialist Democratic Popular Republic, which Hafez al-Assad and his son had turned into an absolute monarchy, even a family fiefdom."
Other factors are at work in Syria, and they mirror those of Iraq's under Saddam Hus- sein's rule. "Syria is a country suffering from severe social and economic problems that require immediate and unequivocal solutions," writes Zisser. "Syria plays a crucial re- gional role and may even decide the fate of the region-for better or worse, for peace or war."
Bashar's rule is based on the fact that he is completely controlled by his father's Old Guard. He doesn't threaten the status quo. This alone may keep him alive for awhile. Meanwhile, as President of Syria, he has not initiated anything so far as domestic policy, socioeconomic affairs, and foreign relations are concerned. As is the case with other nations in the region, Syria is stagnating for lack of the willingness to respond to the changes occurring.
Don't hold your breath to see if the nations of the Middle East unite against American hegemony in the region. Given the distrust they have for one another, this is not going to happen. The notion of a pan-Arab "nation" is just rhetoric. Syria's relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Jordan are shaky at best and he is already on record attacking the leaders of Egypt and Jordan.
His support for the Intifada of the Palestinians and the control Syria has imposed on Lebanon has done nothing to endear him to Israel and Lebanon. Even Israel's withdraw- al of its troops from southern Lebanon has not helped reduce tensions. Lebanon's Christian-Maronite camp continues to call for the withdrawal of Syrian forces from their nation. Ironically, when Bashar took troops out of heavily populated areas of Lebanon, it was seen as a sign of weakness.
It is clear that Syria has little or no control over Hizbullah, the extremist Palestinian or- ganization based in Lebanon--the organization whose militia has continued to shell Israel. Hizbullah is owned by the Iranians, who use it to pursue terrorism against Israel. Even Hamas and Yassir Arafat's Palestinian Authority have no control over a group that could ignite an Israeli response that would set the whole region afire. Bashar has not learned the lessons of the June, 1967, war--the war in which Syria lost the Golan Heights.
Now he has needlessly angered the United States of America. This is not a good idea, not when we have 300,000 troops next door pounding the hell out of Iraq. Giving sanctu- ary to several dozen al-Qa'ida members and lying to the U.S. Secretary of State about the flow of Iraqi oil via Syria was another dangerous and stupid misstep.
Though there is no rush to depose Bashar, the sheer inertia of Syria's domestic and for- eign affairs will continue to undermine him and the Old Guard. It's going to be interesting to watch when the transformation of Iraq occurs after America asserts its control over that nation. Bashar's failure to make peace with Israel will suddenly become a much big- ger problem and, no doubt, he will also be told to end Syria's occupation of Lebanon. He had better do as he is told.
Both Lebanon and Israel will remain strong allies of America. Forty percent of the Leba- nese people are Christians. Right now, because of Syria, there are about four million Lebanese residing in Lebanon, but somewhere between 13 to 15 million Lebanese live outside the country's borders. Lebanon is a thoroughly modern nation. It has 42 univer- sities, 40 daily newspapers, and more than a hundred banks. It is home to 18 religious communities. A free Lebanon would be the model for all others in the Middle East. Israel, for now, remains the only constitutional democracy.
None of this bodes well for Bashar al-Assad and the current leadership of Syria. They must be looking across their border at events in Iraq and wondering if they are next. They should.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Syria
The Middle East & the Arabs
The Threat of Radical Islam
More on the Threat of Radical Islam
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Alan Caruba is a veteran business and science writer, a Public Relations Counselor, Communications Director of the
American Policy Center, and Founder of the National Anxiety Center, a clearinghouse for information about media-driven
scare campaigns. Caruba writes a weekly column, "Warning Signs," posted on the Internet website of the National
Anxiety Center (www.anxietycenter.com). He is the author of A POCKET GUIDE TO MILITANT ISLAM and THE
UNITED NATIONS VS. THE UNITED STATES, both available from the National Anxiety Center, 9 Brookside Road,
Maplewood, New Jersey, 07040.
Copyright 2003 Alan Caruba
Published with Permission of Alan Caruba
ACaruba@AOL.Com
Return to Top of Page
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE,
Volume V, 2003
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity