THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VI, Issue # 15, January 21, 2004
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
ISLAMIC TERRORISTS & THE AVAILABILITY OF WMD:
TERRORIST CBRN -- MATERIALS & EFFECTS
By the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency
BACKGROUND
Al-Qa'ida and associated extremist groups have a wide variety of potential agents and delivery means to
choose from for CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear) attacks. While Al-Qa'ida's end goal is the
use of CBRN to cause mass casualties, most attacks by the group -- and especially by
associated extremists -- probably will be small scale, incorporating relatively crude delivery means and
easily produced or obtained chemicals, toxins, and/or radiological substances. The success of any Al-Qa'ida
attack and the number of ensuing casualties would depend on many factors, including the technical
expertise of those involved, but most scenarios could cause panic and disruption.
Several groups of mujahidin associated with Al-Qa'ida have attempted to carry out "poison plot"
attacks in Europe with easily produced chemicals and toxins best suited to assassination and
small-scale scenarios. These agents could cause hundreds of casualties and widespread panic if
used in multiple simultaneous attacks.
Al-Qa'ida is interested in radiological dispersal devices (RDDs) or "dirty bombs." Construction of
an RDD is well within its capabilities, as radiological materials are relatively easy to acquire from
industrial or medical sources. Osama bin Ladin's operatives may try to launch conventional attacks
against the nuclear industrial infrastructure of the United States in a bid to cause contamination,
disruption, and terror.
A document recovered from an Al-Qa'ida facility in Afghanistan contained a sketch of a crude
nuclear device.
Spray devices disseminating biological warfare (BW) agents have the highest potential impact. Both
September 11, 2001, attack leader Mohammad Atta and Zacharias Moussaoui expressed interest in crop
dusters, raising our concern that al-Qa'ida has considered using aircraft to disseminate BW agents.
Analysis of an al-Qa'ida document recovered in Afghanistan in summer 2002 indicates the group
has crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin, and VX.
This report contains a summary of typical agents and CBRN devices available to Al-Qa'ida and other
terrorist groups. It is not intended to be a summary of the overall threat from Al-Qa'ida's CBRN program.
CHEMICAL AGENTS
Terrorists have considered a wide range of toxic chemicals for attacks. Typical plots focus on poisoning
foods or spreading the agent on surfaces to poison via skin contact, but some also include broader
dissemination techniques.
Cyanides:
Terrorists have considered using a number of toxic cyanide compounds.
Sodium or potassium cyanides are white-to-pale yellow salts that can be easily used to poison food or
drinks. Cyanide salts can be disseminated as a contact poison when mixed with chemicals that enhance
skin penetration, but may be detected since most people will notice if they touch wet or greasy surfaces
contaminated with the mixture.
Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and cyanogen chloride (ClCN) are colorless to pale yellow liquids that will turn
into a gas near room temperature. HCN has a characteristic odor of bitter almonds, and ClCN has an
acrid choking odor and causes burning pain in the victim's eyes. These signs may provide enough warning
to enable evacuation or ventilation of the attack site before the agent reaches a lethal concentration.
Both HCN and ClCN need to be released at a high concentration -- only practical in an enclosed
area -- to be effective. Therefore, leaving the area or ventilating it will significantly reduce the agent's
lethality.
Exposure to cyanide may produce nausea, vomiting, palpitations, confusion, hyperventilation, anxiety, and
vertigo that may progress to agitation, stupor, coma, and death. At high doses, cyanides cause immediate
collapse. Medical treatments are available, but they need to be used immediately for severely exposed
victims.
Mustard Agent:
Mustard is a blister agent that poses a contact and vapor hazard. Its color ranges from clear to dark
brown depending on purity, and it has a characteristic garliclike odor. Mustard is a viscous liquid at room
temperature.
Mustard is not commercially available, but its synthesis does not require significant expertise if a
step-by-step procedure with diagrams is available.
Initial skin contact with mustard causes mild skin irritation, which develops into more severe yellow
fluid-filled blisters. Inhalation of mustard damages the lungs, causes difficulty breathing, and death by
suffocation in severe cases, due to water in the lungs. For both skin contact and inhalation, symptoms
appear within six to twenty-four hours. There are only limited medical treatments available for victims of
mustard-agent poisoning.
Nerve Agents:
Sarin, tabun, and VX are highly toxic military agents that disrupt a victim's nervous system by blocking the
transmission of nerve signals.
These agents are not commercially available, and their synthesis requires significant chemical
expertise.
Exposure to nerve agents causes pinpoint pupils, salivation, and convulsions that can lead to death.
Medical treatments are available, but they need to be used immediately for severely exposed victims.
Toxic Industrial Chemicals:
There are a wide range of toxic industrial chemicals that -- while not as toxic as cyanide, mustard, or nerve
agents -- can be used in much larger quantities to compensate for their lower toxicity.
Chlorine and phosgene are industrial chemicals that are transported in multiton shipments by road and rail.
Rupturing the container can easily disseminate these gases. The effects of chlorine and phosgene are similar
to those of mustard agent.
Organophosphate pesticides such as parathion are in the same chemical class as nerve agents. Although
these pesticides are much less toxic, their effects and medical treatments are the same as for military-grade
nerve agents.
BIOLOGICAL AGENTS
Anthrax:
Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes anthrax, is capable of causing mass casualties. Symptoms
usually appear within one to six days after exposure and include fever, malaise, fatigue, and shortness of
breath. The disease is usually fatal unless antibiotic treatment is started within hours of inhaling anthrax
spores. However, it is not contagious, and few people are vaccinated against anthrax.
Anthrax can be disseminated in an aerosol or used to contaminate food and water.
Cutaneous anthrax can be caused by skin contact with B. anthracis. This form of the disease,
which is easily treated with antibiotics, is rarely fatal.
Botulinum Toxin:
Botulinum toxin is produced by the bacterium Clostridium botulinum, which occurs naturally in the soil.
Crude but viable methods to produce small quantities of this lethal toxin have been found in terrorist
training manuals.
Symptoms usually occur 24 to 36 hours after exposure, but onset of illness may take several days if
the toxin is present in low doses. They include vomiting, abdominal pain, muscular weakness, and
visual disturbance.
Botulinum toxin would be effective in small-scale poisonings or aerosol attacks in enclosed spaces,
such as movie theaters. The toxin molecule is likely too large to penetrate intact skin.
Ricin:
Ricin is a plant toxin that is 30 times more potent than the nerve agent VX by weight and is readily
obtainable by extraction from common castor beans. There is no treatment for ricin poisoning after it has
entered the bloodstream. Victims start to show symptoms within hours to days after exposure, depending
on the dosage and route of administration.
Terrorists have looked at delivering ricin in foods and as a contact poison, although we have no
scientific data to indicate that ricin can penetrate intact skin.
Ricin will remain stable in foods as long as they are not heated, and it will have few indicators
because it does not have a strong taste and is off-white in color.
RADIOLOGICAL & NUCLEAR DEVICES
Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD):
An RDD is a conventional bomb not a yield-producing nuclear device. RDDs are designed to disperse
radioactive material to cause destruction, contamination, and injury from the radiation produced by the
material. An RDD can be almost any size, defined only by the amount of radioactive material and
explosives.
A passive RDD is a system in which unshielded radioactive material is dispersed or placed manually
at the target.
An explosive RDD -- often called a "dirty bomb" -- is any system that uses the explosive force of
detonation to disperse radioactive material. A simple explosive RDD consisting of a lead-shielded
container --commonly called a "pig" -- and a kilogram of explosive attached could easily fit into a
backpack.
An atmospheric RDD is any system in which radioactive material is converted into a form that is
easily transported by air currents.
Use of an RDD by terrorists could result in health, environmental, and economic effects as well as political
and social effects. It will cause fear, injury, and possibly lead to levels of contamination requiring costly and
time-consuming cleanup efforts.
A variety of radioactive materials are commonly available and could be used in an RDD, including
Cesium-137, Strontium-90, and Cobalt-60. Hospitals, universities, factories, construction companies, and
laboratories are possible sources for these radioactive materials.
Improvised Nuclear Device (IND):
An IND is intended to cause a yield-producing nuclear explosion. An IND could consist of diverted
nuclear weapon components, a modified nuclear weapon, or an indigenous-designed device.
INDs can be categorized into two types: implosion and gun assembled. Unlike RDDs that can be
made with almost any radioactive material, INDs require fissile material -- highly enriched uranium or
plutonium -- to produce nuclear yield.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Terrorism & Homeland Security
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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