THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VI, Issue # 28, February 9, 2004
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
A GROWING CONCERN OF AMERICAN CONSERVATIVES:
THE RE-ELECTIBILITY OF GEORGE W. BUSH
By Alan Caruba
Increasingly, Conservatives with good credentials are looking at George W. Bush's re-electibility with growing concern. This analysis
adds to a growing body of opinion that dare not be ignored by the White House.
I rarely address partisan political issues, as readers of my commentaries will attest, but it has become impossible to ignore the direction
that President Bush has taken the Republican Party and the rest of the nation. We are mired in growing debt and it will only take
another attack on the U.S.A. to plunge us back to the uncertainty and impact on the economy that occurred after 9-11.
I don’t profess to understand anything going on in the White House, but it doesn’t take a political analyst to conclude that Bush
believes his Conservative base of support is solid and that he can neutralize the Democratic Party Left by signing off on Liberal
programs such as “No Child Left Behind” and his proposal to add to the staggering numbers of illegal aliens filling America’s cities
and towns. He is not going to get Democratic Liberal votes and his Republican Conservative base is disintegrating as this is being
written.
Thanks to C-Span, I had a front row seat to hear some of the speakers at the recent winter meeting of the Republican National
Committee. The audience was a sea of white, prosperous faces. One of the speakers was Governor Haley Barbour, former RNC
Chairman from 1993 to 1997. “This is going to be a close election,” he said. And then he repeated it.
I have friends who are both to the far Left and the far Right. Those on the far Right are agonizing among themselves over George
Walker Bush. Some are arguing that any Democratic Party candidate would be a disaster for America at this time and, therefore, Bush
must be supported, but just as many are arguing that he must be abandoned because his bizarre domestic policies can do nothing but
harm the economy and the nation.
Those on the far Left argue his tax-cutting, combined with spending programs like expanding Medicare to include coverage of drug
purchase benefits, are financially imprudent. Both Republicans and Democrats are correct. When they meet in the middle, the
likelihood is that they will vote for anybody but Bush.
My view is that Bush has calculated that fear of another 9-11 is sufficient in itself to get re-elected. I believe he is wrong.
Here’s a tiny bit of history that too many either don’t know or would prefer to ignore. Every president since World War II who
committed U.S. troops to massive military interventions overseas in undeclared wars was denied a second term. Harry Truman and
Lyndon B. Johnson declined to run again. George Herbert Walker Bush was defeated. I can recall how popular Bush I was right after
the Persian Gulf War. Bush II’s popularity is slipping, with some polls already suggesting he can be defeated.
Polls consistently demonstrate that most Americans are worried about the economy and health as major issues. They blame Bush
for the loss of jobs that are being transferred overseas, even though the President has no control over such decisions. They can,
though, expect that he will provide some relief to small and mid-sized businesses that are struggling to survive the downturn of the
economy after 9-11 -- a downturn that continues for many of them today.
They blame Bush, too, for having “misled” them into a war with Iraq when it has become clear that his justification was based on a
huge failure of intelligence gathering, just as 9-11 was. As the months ahead unfold with unknown events in Iraq, the failure to
restore any form of sovereignty, even including an Islamic government, will be seen as a misjudgment in the use of force. I have
argued that the U.S. had to project force in the Middle East to stem the tide of Islamic fanaticism driving the worldwide Jihad, but
should the White House be seen to too hastily turn over rule to a deeply divided Iraq or to the United Nations, that folly will be
obvious to everyone, everywhere.
I do not know anybody who is not increasingly deep in debt. They range from young couples with new babies and new homes, to
older citizens like myself who have found their property taxes doubled to pay for failing educational systems and have seen the
way many states increased their borrowing and spending during the 1990s. Bankruptcies are increasing, once thriving businesses
are experiencing cutbacks and loss of revenue that force layoffs. Men and women with excellent professional and managerial skills
are faced with costly decisions just to keep their jobs or secure new ones.
The undercurrent of discontent is palpable throughout the nation and it was this discontent that Governor Howard Dean tapped
into initially. It is this discontent that is now being stirred by other Democratic candidates. Something is terribly wrong in
Washington, D.C., they say. And they are right.
The Republican Party is at a crossroads. The Republicans are pledged to support the President, but they have demonstrated that their
control of Congress has not differentiated them from the Democrats in any demonstrable way. Haley Barbour warned the RNC
they have to be for something. Right now they have demonstrated they are for Liberal Democratic programs!
The heady days of the Reagan revolution are over. The Gingrich-led takeover of Congress with its “Contract with America” is a
pale memory. Congress and the nation are sharply divided and, if the White House does not begin to show some humility and
demonstrate something more than promises of better times to come, the November elections are going to come as a terrible shock
and loss to them.
Right now, I am in the camp of those who fear the Islamic Jihad more than any domestic issue, but I am also in the camp of those
who detest the President’s education, immigration, and economic policies. Many other Republicans are beginning to openly
criticize these policies and, if there is a critical mass of them by November, many will stay home rather than vote.
By how many votes did Bush win Florida the last time? Not many.
More on Americaln Politics & Political Competition
More on American Government & the U.S. Presidency
Alan Caruba is a veteran business and science writer, a Public Relations Counselor, Communications Director of the American Policy Center,
and Founder of the National Anxiety Center, a clearinghouse for information about media-driven scare campaigns. Caruba writes a weekly
column, "Warning Signs," posted on the Internet website of the National Anxiety Center
(www.anxietycenter.com). A compilation of his past col- umns, entitled Warning Signs, is published by Merril Press. In addition
to Warning Signs, Caruba is the author of A Pocket Guide to Militant Islam and The United Na- tions vs. the United States,
both of which are available from the National Anxiety Center, 9 Brookside Road, Maplewood, New Jersey, 07040.
Copyright 2004 Alan Caruba
Published with Permission of Alan Caruba
ACaruba@AOL.Com
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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