THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VII, Issue # 104, May 6, 2005
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES 2005
By Porter J. Goss
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES FACING THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA & AMERICAN NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE
YEAR 2005 -- MEETING LONGTERM CHALLENGES WITH A LONGTERM STRATEGY
FULL STORY:
Today, I will discuss the challenges I see facing America and its interests in the months ahead. These challenges literally span the
globe. My intention is to tell you what I believe are the greatest challenges we face today and those where our service as U.S.
intelligence professionals is needed most on behalf of the U.S. taxpayer.
We need to make tough decisions about which haystacks deserve to be scrutinized for the needles that can hurt us most. And we
know that. in this information age, there are endless haystacks everywhere. I do want to make several things clear:
Our intelligence officers are taking risks, and I will be asking them to take more risks -- justifiable risks -- because I would much rather
explain why we did something than why we did nothing,
I am asking for more competitive analysis, more collocation of analysts and collectors, and deeper collaboration with agencies
throughout the Intelligence Community. Above all, our analysis must be objective. Our credibility rests there.
We do not make policy. We do not wage war. I am emphatic about that and always have been. We do collect and analyze information.
With respect to the Central Intelligency Agency, I want to tell you that my first few months as Director have served only to confirm
what I and members of the U.S. Congress have known about CIA for years. It is a special place -- an organization of dedicated,
patriotic people. In addition to taking a thorough, hard look at our own capabilities, we are working to define CIA's place in the
restructured Intelligence Community -- a community that will be led by a new Director of National Intelligence -- to make the maximum
possible contribution to American security at home and abroad. The CIA is and will remain the flagship agency, in my view. And each
of the other 14 elements in the Intelligence Community will continue to make their unique contributions as well.
Now, I turn to threats. I will not attempt to cover everything that could go wrong in the year ahead. We must, and do, concentrate our
efforts, experience, and expertise on the challenges that are most pressing: defeating terrorism; protecting the homeland; stopping
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as well as stopping drug trafficing; and fostering stability, freedom, and peace in the
most troubled regions of the world. Accordingly, my comments today will focus on these duties. I know well from my 30 years in
public service that the U.S. Senate has an important responsibility to get information to the American people. But I also know all too
well that, as we are broadcasting to America, enemies are also tuning in. In open session I feel I must be very prudent in my remarks
as DCI.
TERRORISM
Defeating terrorism must remain one of our intelligence community's core objectives, as widely dispersed terrorist networks will present
one of the most serious challenges to U.S. national security interests at home and abroad in the coming year. In the past year,
aggressive measures by our intelligence, law enforcement, defense, and homeland security communities, along with our key
international partners, have dealt serious blows to al-Qa'ida and others. Despite these successes, however, the terrorist threat to the
U.S.A. in the homeland and abroad endures.
Al-Qa'ida is intent on finding ways to circumvent U.S. security enhancements in order to strike the American homeland and Americans
citizens abroad as well as at home.
It may be only a matter of time before al-Qa'ida or another terrorist group attempts to use chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear
weapons (CBRN). Al-Qa'ida is only one facet of the threat from a broader Sunni jihadist movement. The Iraq conflict, while not a cause
of extremism, has become a cause for extremists.
We know from experience that al-Qa'ida is a patient, persistent, imaginative, adaptive, and dangerous opponent. But it is vulnerable
and we and other allies have hit it hard.
Jihadist religious leaders preach millennial aberrational visions of a fight for Islam's survival. Sometimes, they argue that the struggle
justifies the indiscriminate killing of civilians, even with chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons.
Our pursuit of al-Qa'ida and its most senior leaders, including Usama bin Ladin and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri is, intense.
However, their capture, alone, would not be enough to eliminate the terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland or U.S. interests overseas.
Often influenced by al-Qa'ida's ideology, members of a broader movement have an ability to plan and conduct operations. We saw
this last March in the railway attacks in Madrid conducted by local Sunni extremists. Other regional groups -- connected to al-Qa'ida
or acting on their own -- also continue to pose a significant threat.
In Pakistan, terrorist elements remain committed to attacking U.S. targets. In Saudi Arabia, remnants of the Saudi al-Qa'ida network
continue to attack U.S. interests in the region.
In Central Asia, the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), a splinter group of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, has become a more virulent
threat to U.S. interests and local governments in the region. Last Spring, the group used female operatives in a series of bombings
in Uzbekistan.
In Southeast Asia, the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) continues to pose a threat to U.S. and Western interests in Indonesia and the
Philippines, where JI is colluding with the Abu Sayyaf Group and possibly the MILF.
In Europe, Islamic extremists continue to plan and cause attacks against U.S. and local interests, some that may cause significant
casualties. In 2004, British authorities dismantled an al-Qa'ida cell and an extremist brutally killed a prominent Dutch citizen in the
Netherlands.
Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-US jihadists. The jihadists who survive will leave Iraq
experienced in and focused on acts of urban terrorism. These jihadists represent a potential pool of contacts to build transnational
terrorist cells, groups, and networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has sought to bring about the final victory of Islam over the West, and he hopes to establish a safe haven
in Iraq from which his group could operate against "infidel" Western nations and "apostate" Muslim governments.
Other terrorist groups spanning the globe also pose persistent and serious threats to US and Western interests. Hizballah's main
focus remains Israel, but it could conduct lethal attacks against U.S. interests quickly upon a decision to do so. Palestinian terrorist
organizations have apparently refrained from directly targeting U.S. or Western interests in their opposition to Middle East peace
initiatives, but pose an ongoing risk to U.S. citizens who could be killed or wounded in attacks intended to strike Israeli interests.
Extremist groups in Latin America are still a concern, with the FARC -- the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -- possessing
the greatest capability and the clearest intent to threaten U.S. interests in the region. The Horn of Africa, the Sahel, the Mahgreb,
the Levant, and the Gulf States are all areas where "pop up" terrorist activity can be expected.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghanistan, once the safe haven for Usama bin Ladin, has started on the road to recovery after decades of instability and civil war.
Hamid Karzai's election to the Presidency was a major milestone. Elections for a new National Assembly and local district councils --
tentatively scheduled for this Spring -- will complete the process of electing representatives.
President Karzai still faces a low-level insurgency aimed at destabilizing the country, raising the cost of reconstruction, and ultimately
forcing Coalition forces to leave.
The development of the Afghan National Army and a national police force is going well, although neither can yet stand on its own.
IRAQ
Low voter turnout in some Sunni areas and the post-election resumption of insurgent attacks -- most against Iraqi civilian and security
forces -- indicate that the insurgency achieved at least some of its election-day goals and remains a serious threat to creating a stable
representative government in Iraq.
Self-determination for the Iraqi people will largely depend on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide security. Iraq's most capable security
units have become more effective in recent months, contributing to several major operations and helping to put an Iraqi face on
security operations. Insurgents are determined to discourage new recruits and undermine the effectiveness of existing Iraqi security
forces.
The lack of security is hurting Iraq's reconstruction efforts and economic development, causing overall economic growth to proceed
at a much slower pace than many analysts expected a year ago.
Alternatively, the larger uncommitted moderate Sunni population and the Sunni political elite may seize the post electoral moment to
take part in creating Iraq's new political institutions, if victorious Shia and Kurdish parties include Sunnis in the new government and
the drafting of the Iraqi constitution.
PROLIFERATION
I will now turn to the worldwide challenge of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Last year started with promise, as Libya
had just renounced its WMD programs, North Korea was engaged in negotiations with regional states on its nuclear weapons
program, and Iran was showing greater signs of openness regarding its nuclear program, after concealing activity for nearly a decade.
Let me start with Libya, a good news story, and one that reflects the patient perseverance with which the Intelligence Community can
tackle a tough intelligence problem.
LIBYA
In 2004, Tripoli followed through with a range of steps to disarm itself of WMD and ballistic missiles.
Libya gave up key elements of its nuclear weapons program and opened itself to the IAEA.
Libya gave up some key CW assets and opened its former CW program to international scrutiny.
After disclosing its Scud stockpile and extensive ballistic and cruise missile R&D efforts in 2003, Libya took important steps to abide
by its commitment to limit its missiles to the 300-km range threshold of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
The U.S.A. continues to work with Libya to clarify some discrepancies in the declaration.
NORTH KOREA
On February 10, 2005, Pyongyang announced it was suspending participation in the six-party talks underway since 2003, declared it
had nuclear weapons, and affirmed it would seek to increase its nuclear arsenal. North Korea had been pushing for a freeze on its
plutonium program in exchange for significant benefits, rather than committing to the full dismantlement that we and our partners
sought.
In 2003, North Korea claimed it had reprocessed the 8,000 fuel rods from the Yongbyong reactor, originally stored under the Agreed
Framework, with IAEA monitoring in 1994. North Korea claims to have made new weapons from its reprocessing effort.
We believe North Korea continues to pursue a uranium enrichment capability, drawing on the assistance it received from A.Q. Khan
before his network was shutdown.
North Korea continues to develop, produce, deploy, and sell ballistic missiles of increasing range and sophistication, augmenting
Pyongyang's large operational force of Scud and No Dong class missiles. North Korea could resume flight-testing at any time,
including testing of longer-range missiles, such as the Taepo Dong-2 system. We assess the TD-2 is capable of reaching the United
States with a nuclear-weapon-sized payload.
North Korea continues to market its ballistic missile technology, trying to find new clients now that some traditional customers,
such as Libya, have halted such trade. We believe North Korea has active CW and BW programs, and probably has chemical
weapons, and possibly biological weapons, ready for use.
IRAN
In early February, the spokesman of Iran's Supreme Council for National Security publicly announced that Iran would never scrap
its nuclear program. This came in the midst of negotiations with EU-3 members (Britain, Germany and France) seeking objective
guarantees from Tehran that it will not use nuclear technology for nuclear weapons.
Previous comments by Iranian officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader and its Foreign Minister, indicated that Iran would not give
up its ability to enrich uranium. Certainly, they can use it to produce fuel for power reactors. We are more concerned about the
dual-use nature of the technology that could also be used to achieve a nuclear weapon.
In parallel, Iran continues its pursuit of long-range ballistic missiles, such as an improved version of its 1,300 km range Shahab-3
MRBM, to add to the hundreds of short-range SCUD missiles it already has.
Even since 9/11, Tehran continues to support terrorist groups in the region, such as Hizballah, and could encourage increased
attacks in Israel and the Palestinian Territories to derail progress toward peace.
Iran reportedly is supporting some anti-Coalition activities in Iraq and seeking to influence the future character of the Iraqi state.
Islamists and religious conservatives are likely to consolidate their power in Iran's June, 2005, presidential elections, further
marginalizing the reform movement.
Iran continues to retain in secret important members of Al-Qai'ida -- the Management Council -- causing further uncertainty about
Iran's commitment to bring them to justice.
CHINA
Beijing's military modernization and military buildup is tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. Improved Chinese
capabilities threaten U.S. forces in the region. In 2004, China increased its ballistic missile forces deployed across from Taiwan
and rolled out several new submarines. China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-armed missiles as well as
conventional capabilities for use in a regional conflict.
Taiwan continues to promote constitutional reform and other attempts to strengthen local identity. Beijing judges these moves to
be a "timeline for independence". If Beijing decides that Taiwan is taking steps toward permanent separation that exceed Beijing's
tolerance, we believe China is prepared to respond with various levels of force.
China is increasingly confident and active on the international stage, trying to ensure it has a voice on major international issues,
secure access to natural resources, and capability to counter what it sees as U.S. efforts to contain or encircle China.
New leadership under President Hu Jintao is facing an array of domestic challenges in 2005, such as the potential for a resurgence
of inflation, increased dependence on exports, growing economic inequalities, increased awareness of individual rights, and
popular expectations of the new leadership.
RUSSIA
The attitudes and actions of the socalled "siloviki" -- the ex-KGB men that Russian President Vladimir Putin has placed in positions
of authority throughout the Russian government -- may be critical determinants of the course Putin will pursue in the year ahead.
Perceived setbacks in Ukraine are likely to lead Putin to redouble his efforts to defend Russian interests abroad, while balancing
that course of action with cooperation with the West. Russia's most immediate security threat is terrorism, and counterterrorism
cooperation undoubtedly will continue.
Putin publicly acknowledges a role for outside powers to play in the Commonwealth of Independent States, for example, but we
believe he is, nevertheless, concerned about further encroachment by the U.S.A. and NATO into the former Soviet region.
Moscow worries that separatism inside Russia and radical Islamic movements beyond their borders might threaten stability in
southern Russia. Chechen extremists have increasingly turned to terrorist operations, in response to Moscow's successes in
Chechnya, and it is reasonable to predict that they will carry out attacks against civilian or military targets elsewhere in Russia
during 2005.
Budget increases will help Russia create a professional military by replacing conscripts with volunteer servicemen and focus on
maintaining, modernizing, and extending the operational life of its strategic weapons systems, including its nuclear missile force.
Russia remains an important source of weapons technology, materials, and components for other nations. The vulnerability of
Russian WMD materials and technology to theft or diversion is a continuing concern.
POTENTIAL AREAS FOR INSTABILITY
Middle East
In the Middle East, the election of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas marks an important step, and Abbas has made it clear that
negotiating a peace deal with Israel is a high priority. Nevertheless, there are hurdles ahead.
Redlines must be resolved while Palestinian leaders try to rebuild damaged PA infrastructure and governing institutions, especially
the security forces, the legislature, and the judiciary.
Terrorist groups, some of who benefit from funding from outside sources, could step up attacks to derail peace and progress.
Africa
In Africa, chronic instability will continue to hamper counterterrorism efforts and pose heavy humanitarian and peacekeeping
burdens.
In Nigeria, the military is struggling to contain militia groups in the oil-producing south and ethnic violence that frequently erupts
throughout the country. Extremist groups are emerging from the country's Muslim population of about 65 million.
In Sudan, the peace deal signed in January will result in de facto southern autonomy and may inspire rebels in provinces such as
Darfur to press harder for a greater share of resources and power. Opportunities exist for Islamic extremists to reassert themselves
in the North, unless the central government stays unified.
Unresolved disputes in the Horn of Africa -- Africa's gateway to the Middle East -- create vulnerability to foreign terrorist and
extremist groups. Ethiopia and Eritrea still have a contested border, and armed factions in Somalia indicate they will fight the
authority of a new transitional government.
Latin America
In Latin America, the region is entering a major electoral cycle in 2006, when Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela hold presidential elections. Several key countries in the Western Hemisphere are potential
flashpoints in 2005.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, supported by Fidel Castro, is consolidating his power in Venezuela by using technically
legal tactics to target his opponents and is meddling in the internal affairs of other countries in the Latin American region.
In Colombia, counternarcotics and counterterrorism progress under President Alvaro Uribe's successful leadership may be
affected by the election.
The outlook is very cloudy for legitimate, timely elections in November, 2005, in Haiti -- even with substantial international
support.
Campaigning for the 2006 presidential election in Mexico is likely to stall progress on fiscal, labor, and energy reforms.
In Cuba, Fidel Castro's hold on power remains firm, but a bad fall last October has rekindled speculation about his declining
health and succession scenarios.
Southeast Asia
In Southeast Asia, three countries bear close watching: Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand.
In Indonesia, President Susilo Bamnang Yudhoyono has moved swiftly to crackdown on corruption. Reinvigorating the economy,
burdened by the costs of recovery in tsunami-damaged areas, will likely be affected by continuing deep-seated ethnic and political
turmoil exploitable by terrorists.
In the Philippines, Manila is struggling with prolonged Islamic and Communist rebellions. The presence of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)
terrorists seeking safe haven and training bases increases the volatility of the situation and adds capability to terrorist groups
already in place.
Thailand is plagued with an increasingly volatile Muslim separatist threat in its southeastern provinces, and the risk of escalation
remains high.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
U.S. Intelligence & America's National Security
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
The Middle East & the Arabs
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Terrorism & American Homeland Security
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Porter J. Goss, Director of Central Intelligence and head of the Central Intelligence Agency, presented the foregoing statement, on
February 16, 2005, as testimony before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
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