THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 131, July 19, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
IRAN AGAINST THE ARABS
By Dr. Michael Rubin
IRAN, ARABS, & THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: THE ISRAELI-ARAB CONFLICT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE
WIDER MIDDLE EASTERN CONFLICT BETWEEN IRAN & THE ARABS -- CRACKS IN THE SOLIDARITY OF POLITICAL ISLAM --
SHIITES VERSUS SUNNIS -- IRAN'S IDEOLOGICAL COMMITMENT TO EXPORTING THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION & SPREADING IT
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST -- ARAB LEADERS' PERCEPTION OF HEZBOLLAH AS AN ARM OF IRANIAN
INFLUENCE WAGING A SECTARIAN WAR IN THE HEART OF THE MIDDLE EAST
FULL STORY:
After Hamas kidnapped 19-year-old Cpl. Gilad Shalit on June 25, 2006, Israeli forces launched an assault on Gaza to win his
release. Arab condemnation was swift. Saudi Arabia's pro-government Al-Jazira daily called Israel "a society of
terrorists." Egypt's state-controlled Al-Gumhuriyah condemned Israel's "heinous crimes" in Gaza. Following a July 8
meeting in Tehran, foreign ministers from countries neighboring Iraq denounced the "brutal Israeli attacks."
The crisis escalated four days later, when Hezbollah terrorists infiltrated Israel's northern border and kidnapped two soldiers.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called the raid "an act of war," and directed the military to launch an all-out assault on
Hezbollah and targets throughout Lebanon. Neither Lebanese nor regional reaction to the opening of a second front was
what Hezbollah expected. On July 14, Hezbollah's Al-Manar called upon "all Lebanese people to rally behind the
Islamic resistance" and to fight Israel's "flagrant aggression."
They didn't. No longer subject to Syrian occupation, Lebanese officials spoke freely. The Middle East Media Research
Institute translated many reactions. "Lebanon . . . is not willing to be the spearhead of the Arab-Israeli conflict," former
President Amin Gemayel said. "Hezbollah will have to explain itself to the Lebanese," Druze leader Walid Jumblatt told Le
Figaro. The independent Beirut daily Al-Mustaqbal quoted Lebanese Communications Minister Marwan Hamada
saying, "Syrian Vice President Faruq al-Shara gives the commands, Hezbollah carries them out, and Lebanon is the hostage."
Nor did the wider Arab world rally in unanimity toward Hezbollah. "A distinction must be made between legitimate resistance
and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements [without] . . . consulting and coordinating with Arab nations," the
official Saudi Press Agency opined. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit included Hezbollah rocket attacks
in his condemnation of terrorism. Even the Arab League, which seldom misses an opportunity to denounce Israel, offered only
muted criticism. True, League Secretary General Amr Moussa condemned Israel's "disproportionate attack," after the July 15
meeting, but, rather than just slam the Jewish state, Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, chided Hezbollah's "unexpected,
inappropriate and irresponsible acts." Delegates from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the UAE backed Mr. al-Faisal.
Ahmed al-Jarallah, Editor of Kuwait's Arab Times, condemned both Hezbollah and Hamas in an editorial that same day,
writing, "Unfortunately we must admit that, in such a war, the only way to get rid of 'these irregular phenomena' is what Israel
is doing."
It may be tempting to think that acceptance of Israel is in the air. But such optimism is unfounded. There is no change of heart
in Riyadh, Cairo, or Kuwait. Saudi princes still finance Palestinian terror. Rather, the recent Arab tolerance toward Israel's
predicament and condemnation of Hezbollah signal recognition of a greater threat on the horizon. Wadi Batti Hanna, a
columnist in Iraq's Arab nationalist Al-Ittijah al-Akhar daily, put it bluntly when, on July 15, he asked, "How long will
the Arabs continue to fight on behalf of Iran?"
The Iranian menace is rising. Condoleezza Rice's May 31 announcement that the Bush administration would engage Iran
signaled U.S. weakness across the Middle East. "Why don't you admit that you are weak and your razor is blunt?" Iranian
Supreme Leader asked rhetorically four days later, as assembled crowds in Tehran called for America's death. An Iranian
Revolutionary Guards boat recently unveiled a banner reading, "U.S. cannot do a damn thing," as it sailed past a U.S. navy
ship in the Persian Gulf. Tehran's confidence is high.
Even as Arab states routinely condemn U.S. foreign policy, they embrace the American umbrella. John Mearsheimer and
Steven Walt, respectively of the University of Chicago and Harvard, may argue that "the Israel Lobby" perverts U.S.
interests; but Arab leaders understand that the only countries the U.S. military has fought to protect in the Middle East were
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The tiny Gulf emirates are defenseless without U.S. protection. There is hardly a state on the
Arabian Peninsula that does not train with the U.S. military or welcome a small U.S. presence. But, with U.S. congressmen
proclaiming the defeat and vulnerability of U.S. troops in Iraq, and the Islamic Republic of Iran drawing closer to its nuclear
goals, Tehran's stock is rising at U.S. expense.
The signs of Arab unease have been growing over the last 18 months. Jordan's King Abdullah II first raised alarm. In a
December 12, 2004, interview with Chris Matthews, he warned that the rise of Iranian-backed Shiite parties in Iraq could give
rise to a Shiite "crescent" stretching from Iran to Lebanon. Abdulaziz Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic
Revolution in Iraq, called Abdullah's comments "ridiculous," but the remarks resonated in Arab countries. True, the Shiites
might account for only 10% of the world's Muslims, but, in the volatile region stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to
Iran, the Sunnis and Shiites are near parity. That Shiites predominate in the oil-producing regions not only of Iran and Iraq
but also in Saudi Arabia accelerates the fears. Satellite stations throw fuel on the fire. A July 12 political cartoon in the Iraqi
daily Al-Mutamar depicted a man pouring gasoline labeled sectarianism into a satellite dish.
The power of satellite stations to inflame sectarian passion is extraordinary. I was in Sweileh, Jordan, as news broke last
November that Iraqi Shiite militias had tortured Sunni prisoners in detention. Al-Jazeera replayed the footage in gory
detail. Cafes hushed and men shouted abuse at the TV screens. More recently, Al-Jazeera amplified Osama bin
Laden's July 1 Internet message blaming "the people of the [Shiite] south" for violating Sunni cities like Ramadi, Fallujah and
Mosul. The situation worsened when Iranian-backed Shiite militiamen rampaged through the mixed Hay al-Jihad
neighborhood on July 9, demanding identity cards and killing anyone with a Sunni name.
Most Arabs perceive Israel as small. Egypt -- home to one of every three Arabs -- has enjoyed a cold peace with Israel for
more than a quarter-century. Gulf states, on the whole, would rather make money than directly fight Israel. While they do not
like Israel's existence, Jerusalem presents no threat. Not so Tehran. A giant with 70 million people, Iran is no status quo power.
Its ideological commitment to export revolution is real. Across Lebanon and the region, Arab leaders see Hezbollah for what it
is: An arm of Iranian influence waging a sectarian battle in the heart of the Middle East.
An old Arab proverb goes, "Me against my brother; me and my brother against our cousin; and me, my brother and my cousin
against the stranger." Forced to make a choice, Sunni Arabs are deciding: The Jews are cousins; the Shiites, strangers. U.S.
diplomats may applaud the new pragmatism, but the reason behind it is nothing to celebrate.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Israeli-Arab Conflict
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
The Middle East -- Lebanon as a Geopolitical Problem
The Middle East & the Problem of Syria
The Middle East & the Problem of Iran
Islamism & Jihadism -- Radical Islam & Islamic Terrorism
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public
Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson, of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff
advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense (2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of
History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of
Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at
the Council of Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and
International Affairs.
The foregoing article by Dr, Rubin was originally published in the Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2006, and can be found
on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum.
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
July 19, 2006
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume VIII, 2006
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues