IS MONTANA IN ECO-COLLAPSE?
By Dennis T. Avery
The State of Montana? In collapse? Why?
Diamond claims key problems, including raging forest fires, unsustainable farming, and impending climate change.
Montana’s first problem, Diamond says, is that its vast forests are threatened by huge forest fires. It costs the U.S. national government too much to thin the trees and take out the dead wood, which lightning ignites into massive flames. The state’s timber industry has already declined 80 percent, the cause which, says Diamond, is that Montana can no longer compete with tree-growers in warmer climates.
Debra Okonski, reporting for the Montana think-tank, the Political Economy Research Center (PERC), says the national government has blocked Montana timber harvests, responding to the tree-huggers like Diamond. She says the state’s private forest owners keep their trees thinned, their forest fuel loads low, and profitably sell timber.
Montana certainly won’t run out of trees in the middle of a global warming. Both warming and additional carbon dioxide stimulate tree growth.
Diamond claims Montana’s farming will collapse due to soil erosion, fertilizer pollution, and spreading salt water seeps. Fortunately, technology, is already resolving those problems. No-till farming uses herbicides, rather than plowing, to control weeds, and cuts soil erosion by 65-95 percent. It similarly cuts fertilizer run-off from the fields.
No-till farming also doubles soil moisture. Montana’s no-till farmers no longer fallow half their nine million acres every year, leaving them bare to searing winds and explosive raindrops. Ending fallow also helps prevent the downhill seepage of salts from fallow fields — which Diamond says caused the salinity problem.
Global warming will reduce the snowmelt for irrigation, says Diamond. Meanwhile, Egypt has bioengineered a new wheat variety that needs only one irrigation per season, instead of eight — because of a gene borrowed from barley. The new drought-proof wheat, farmed with no-till, will help Montana to stay in the wheat business.
Diamond goes on to lament “rich people” buying land in Montana for second homes. However, he vacations there himself, noting that recreation is one of the booming industries of the Twenty-first century. If Montana manages its forests and wildlands well, it ought to harvest more and more dollars from skiers, hunters, fisherman, and a wide variety of vacationers. This is collapse?
Diamond believes the Modern Warming is being caused by human-emitted carbon dioxide. The planet is certainly warming, but the microfossils in seabed sediments tell us the Earth has had 600 moderate, natural warmings in the last million years. Solar-created beryllium isotopes in the sediments link the warming to changes in the sun’s irradiance.
The Modern Warming may favor some shifts in Montana’s tree species. After the last Ice Age, the warming climate triggered a rapid spread of lodgepole pine in Montana and Douglas fir across the Pacific Northwest. But that’s adaptation, not collapse.
Jared Diamond is overstating our environmental problems, and ignoring strategies and technologies that make modern societies more sustainable. That’s not information; it is propaganda and alarmism.
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior analyst for the United States
Department of State. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the forthcoming book Unstoppable
Global Warming: Every 1500 Years, to be published in October, 2006, by Rowman & Littlefield. Readers may write Avery
at Post Office Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email: cgfi@rica.net
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