THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume IX, Issue # 72, April 24, 2007
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
THE NEW MATH ON GLOBAL WARMING
By Dennis T. Avery
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM & GLOBAL WARMING THEORY: THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS' PREDICTION
OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY A BUILD-UP OF HUMAN-EMITTED CARBON
DIOXIDE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE -- THE HISTORIC & SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE OF A MODERATE, NATURAL 1,500-YEAR
CLIMATE CYCLE REFUTE THE CATASTROPHIC GLOBAL WARMING CLAIM ADVANCED BY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS
FULL STORY:
The United Nations climate change panel -- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- told us in 2001 that
human-emitted carbon dioxide might drive the planet’s average temperature upward by 5.8 degrees C -- a bigger average
warming than the world has had in the past 100,000 years. The UN’s 2007 report scales the possible overheating back a bit,
to a maximum of 4.5 degrees -- still a very large warming.
But wait! The environmentalist movement is now conceding that the earth has a natural, moderate climate cycle. Jon
Coifman, of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said recently on the Hannity and Colmes TV show:
“The earth has natural temperature and climate cycles.
Nobody has disputed that.”
We’re glad that the NRDC finally accepts the natural warming cycle as fact. Until Coifman’s admission, I don’t think the
words “natural climate cycle” had ever escaped the lips of a climate alarmist.
The historic evidence of a moderate, natural 1,500-year climate cycle includes Roman writings, Egypt’s early Nile flood
records, and ancient Chinese court documents. The scientific evidence confirming the cycle has been literally “dug up” in
the past 25 years, primarily from the oxygen isotopes in long, layered ice cores, and the one-celled fossils in the bottom
sediments of lakes and oceans.
My favorite temperature proxy is North America’s fossil pollen, which shows our continent has had nine complete shifts in
its trees and plants over the past 14,000 years — or one every 1650 years. In my native Michigan, the pollen says the
forests during the warmings have been dominated by warmth-loving beech trees, with more oak trees intruding as the
climate cools, followed by more pine trees. Today, 150 years into a warming, the pine trees are giving way again to the oaks,
and the beech trees are waiting their turn.
Coifman is still talking about the planet passing a “crisis tipping point.” He doesn’t seem to realize that the existence of this
natural cycle profoundly changes the math on global warming. The eco-movement and Al Gore have been repeating the
mantra that “the earth has warmed 0.6 degree C in the last century.” They claim this has been due to more human-emitted
CO2, and project Big Warming on that basis. When we plug in the 1,500-year cycle, however, we have to take away from the
scary computer models the 0.5 degrees of warming that occurred before 1940 — and thus before much human-emitted CO2.
The earth has warmed only a net 0.2 degrees C of net warming since 1940. Human-emitted CO2 gets the blame for only half
of that — or 0.1 degree C of warming over 65 years! We’ve had no warming at all since 1998.
Remember, too, that each added unit of CO2 has less impact on the climate. The first 40 parts per million of human-emitted
CO2 added to the atmosphere in the 1940s had as much climate impact as the next 360 ppm.
Why does NRDC say that the earth has reached a “crisis tipping point” when we’ve had only 0.2 degrees C of warming
over the last 65 years — and no warming at all over the past eight years? How do the Greens project a mind-numbing surge
of global warming from this New Math on Global Warming?
Is the emerging evidence of the natural cycle the real crisis for Al Gore and the global warming alarmists?
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
Policy Issues Relating to Energy, Environment,
& Natural Resources
Dennis T. Avery is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., and is the Director of the Institute's Center for
Global Food Issues (www.cgfi.org). Formerly he was a senior analyst for the United States
Department of State. He is the co-author, with atmospheric physicist Fred Singer, of the book, Unstoppable Global Warming:
Every 1500 Years (Blue Ridge Summit, Pennsylvania: Rowman & Littlefield, 2006). Readers may write Avery at Post Office
Box 202, Churchville, Virginia, 24421. Email: cgfi@rica.net
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THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
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Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
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