THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume XII, Issue # 20, February 1, 2010
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
IRAQ -- A WATERSHED ELECTION
By Dr. Michael Rubin
HOW THE IRAQI POLITICAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OPERATING UNDER IRAQ'S CONSTITUTION: IS U.S. CYNICISM
ABOUT IRAQI CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY WARRANTED? THE CURRENT CONDITION OF THE RULE OF LAW IN
IRAQ -- WHY THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT INTERFERING IN IRAQI JUDICIAL MATTERS -- THE
REVISED ELECTORAL SYSTEM & THE TREND TOWARD GREATER POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN IRAQ -- THE
SHORTCOMINGS OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION'S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRAQ & IRAQI POLITICS
FULL STORY:
After the Iraqi parliament -- the "Council of Representatives of Iraq" -- banned 500 candidates from contesting the March
7, 2010, national elections, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden rushed to Baghdad to urge Iraqi political leaders to reconsider.
While the ban has fueled U.S. cynicism about Iraqi democracy, such cynicism is unwarranted, especially now.
The Iraqi parliament's decision did not wipe out Sunni candidates. Even the majority Shia lists are multi-sectarian. Iraqis
say the controversy is really about rule-of-law and sovereignty issues. Across the ethnic and sectarian spectrum — and
even in senior Iraqi military circles — Iraqis consider it likely that there will be a Baathist coup attempt following U.S.
withdrawal, even if they disagree about its chances of success. Indeed, it is no coincidence the current Iraqi Defense
Minister is among those banned by parliament.
The U.S. White House in Washington and the U.S. Embassy in Iraq should be cautious about interfering in Iraqi judicial
matters. From an Iraqi perspective, their law is seldom as arbitrary as U.S. Embassy whims or U.S. CENTCOM experiments.
The Iraqi system now works. Already, several dozen disqualified candidates have won reinstatement through appeal. An
overly active U.S. White House will fuel Iraqi distrust, which is already high because of the perception that the current
administration is hostile toward Arab democracy. In offices and classrooms around the holy city of Najaf, the Shia religious
leadership castigated U.S. military efforts — singling out Generals Petraeus and Odierno by name — to force reconciliation
with recalcitrant Baath Party members. "The Awakening [Council] model cannot apply to the Baath," the son of one Grand
Ayatollah said. "If they do not accept democracy, how can they govern it?"
Indeed, it is ironic that so many observers are bashing Iraqi democracy ahead of elections that can, more than any previous
polling, cement Iraq's democracy. In 2005, Iraqi leaders sought to dominate society. Shia and Kurdish leaders used militias
to impose through force of arms what they could not achieve at the ballot box. Public reaction against their abuse of power,
however, overshadowed the shortterm dividends these political movements sought. In municipal elections last January and
July, voters punished the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, both of which used
militias to facilitate corruption and intimidate constituents.
This trend toward greater accountability will continue, as the Iraqi parliament has reversed the system of closed lists and
party slates imposed by the Coalition Provisional Authority and the United Nations. Previously, party leaders rather than
constituents determined a politician's success. In the new system, all candidates must appear on ballots and Iraqis can vote
for individuals, regardless of where they fall on the slate. No longer can party leaders fill lists with family members and
corrupt functionaries and suffer no electoral consequences. While Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has a reputation for
honesty, the public will purge many of his subordinates who do not. One senior Dawa Party member predicted that only 50
percent of incumbents will remain in office. Kurdish leader Masud Barzani's decision to visit Washington last week also
stemmed from the realization that, given the public animus toward his party's corruption and his functionaries' abuse of
power, the number of seats he controls (and, by extension, his leverage) will decline after the elections.
Municipal elections provide a window into Iraqis' new realism. Governors took office only after negotiating power-sharing
agreements. Najaf governor Adnan al-Zurfi, who governs in coalition with the ISCI, said his rivals realize that the electorate
will punish both parties if they do not cooperate and deliver. Compare this with the Arab political norm: While one-party
states and dictators dominate most countries, Iraqi politicians debate campaign strategies and candidate match-ups to
maximize seats ahead of coalition negotiations. Indeed, Iraq is now one of only two Middle Eastern countries where ordinary
people cannot easily predict their next leader. (The other is Israel.) Even Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a U.S. favorite, may
find himself forced into retirement after March. "If Talabani can't even manage his own political party," one Shia leader
remarked, referring to the collapse of Talabani's political support among Kurds, "why does he deserve to lead Iraq?"
Still, Iraqis are wary and need international support. Confidence in the Independent High Election Commission is low after a
bribery scandal in last Summer's Kurdish elections. Politicians worry that opponents polling poorly in specific districts might
deliberately spoil ballot boxes to sway results in hotly contested races. Lack of international preparation to support electoral
transparency has increased fears of a repeat of last August's botched Afghanistan election. Any election-day chaos might
hamper U.S. withdrawal plans.
Alternatively, successful elections will allow Iraq to turn a corner. Saddam will have been gone a decade when the new
parliament's term ends. As University of Baghdad students point out, Iraqis entering the University will have been eight
years old when Saddam fell. Just as new generations in Eastern Europe finally put the past behind them, so too can young
Iraqis. How sad, then, that, when U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks of the "three Ds — diplomacy, development,
and defense" — that define Obama's foreign-policy philosophy, democracy is not among them.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Iraq
Page Two
Page One
The Problem of Rogue States:
Iraq as a Case History
National Strategy for Victory in Iraq
American Foreign Policy -- The Middle East
American Foreign Policy -- Constitutional Democracy:
U.S. Promotion of Constitutional Democracy in Foreign Countries
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University, 1999) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Senior Editor of the Middle East Quarterly, a senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, and a resident
scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical
Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson,
of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition
Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense
(2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem
(2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref
Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale
University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew
University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs. Dr. Rubin recently returned from a trip through Iraq
outside of U.S. military and security control.
The foregoing article by Dr. Michael Rubin was originally published in National Review Online, February 1, 2010, and
can be found on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum, a foreign policy think tank which seeks to
define and promote American interests in the Middle East, defining U.S. interests to include fighting radical Islam,
working for Palestinian Arab acceptance of the State of Israel, improving the management of U.S. efforts to promote
constitutional democracy in the Middle East, reducing America's energy dependence on the Middle East, more robustly
asserting U.S. interests vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, and countering the Iranian threat.
(Article URL: http://www.meforum.org/2582/iraq- watershed-election)
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
February 1, 2010
Return to Top of Page
Go to the WEBSITE INDEX
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Public Issues & Political Controversies
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
Most Recent Articles
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Volume XII, 2010
Return to Beginning of
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA,
Subject Matter Highlights
Return to POLITICAL EDUCATION Homepage
CONTACT & ACCESS INFORMATION
This is not a commercial website. The sole purpose of the website is to share with interested persons information regarding civics,
civic and social education, political science, government, politics, law, constitutional law and history, public policy, and political
philosophy and history, as well as current and recent political developments, public issues, and political controversies.
POLITICAL EDUCATION, CONSERVATIVE ANALYSIS
POLITICS, SOCIETY, & THE SOVEREIGN STATE
Website of Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr.
Government, Politics, Public Policy, Legal Issues, Constitutional Law, Government & the Economy, Cultural Values, Foreign Affairs,
International Relations, Military Defense & National Security, Geopolitics, Terrorism & Homeland Security, American National Interests,
Political Systems & Processes, Political Institutions, Political Ideologies, & Political Philosophy
INDEX FOR THE ENTIRE WEBSITE
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
X
Y
Z
THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Conservative & Free-Market Analysis of Government, Politics & Public Policy, Covering Political, Legal, Constitutional, Economic,
Cultural, Military, International, Strategic, & Geopolitical Issues
Conservative Government Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity