THE PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE, USA
An Online Journal of Political Commentary & Analysis
Volume VIII, Issue # 160, August 25, 2006
Dr. Almon Leroy Way, Jr., Editor
Government Committed to & Acting in Accord with Conservative Principles
Ensures a Nation's Strength, Progress, & Prosperity
LAST CHANCE FOR IRAQ?
By Dr. Michael Rubin
IRAQ, THE U.S.A., & IRAN: WHAT IS REQUIRED FOR THE SUCCESS OF AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY IN IRAQ -- DON'T
TRUST IRAN, CUT THE SUPPLY LINES TO THE IRANIAN-BACKED MILITIAS, DESTROY THE IRANIAN INTELLIGENCE NETWORK,
REPLACE THE IRANIAN CHARITIES WITH OUR OWN PATRONAGE, & TREAT THE COMMANDERS OF IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY
GUARDS AS THE COMBATANTS THEY ARE -- PROJECT STRENGTH, RATHER THAN WEAKNESS, IN THE MIDDLE EAST
FULL STORY:
The U.S.A. is losing in Iraq because American politicians and the general public have not decided they want or need to win.
Many congressmen look at Iraq through the lens of the 2006 election: They care neither how their words embolden the
enemy nor how their grandstanding impacts Iraq. Meanwhile, many commentators have cast accuracy aside to cater to, and
cash in on, public ennui.
Iraqis are now as pessimistic as they have ever been. Corruption and organized crime run rampant. True, some metrics are
positive: Oil production is on the rebound, shops are opening, agricultural production is up, and Defense-Ministry forces
are increasingly trained and competent. But the corrupt police are running rampant.
While U.S. diplomats have become masters of their cubicles, Iranians have become masters of Iraq. We hold sway over the
Green Zone; they hold sway over the rest of the country. Their dominion includes, increasingly, Kurdistan. Why? Because
they have provided overwhelming force, patronage, and staying power.
Militias exist to impose through force what they cannot win through the ballot box. Iran exerts its influence through militias,
and the U.S.A. fails to counter them. Left alone, they metastasize. While USAID takes weeks to allocate a paperclip, and
months more to study its impact, the militias create elaborate charities to establish themselves in society. Thus Iran is
replicating the Hezbollah strategy. It is no accident that Iran's current Ambassador to Iraq was formerly Tehran's liaison to
the Lebanese terrorist group.
How to win? We're suckers if we trust Iran. In Iraq, we need to cut the supply lines to the militias, roll up Iranian intelligence,
and replace Iranian charities with our own patronage. We've got to treat the commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards as the
combatants they are. If imposing firm demands pushes Iran toward a fight, we cannot shrink from it. In the Middle East,
projecting weakness leads to defeat. Unfortunately, the U.S. Department of State under Condoleeza Rice is all about weakness.
LINKS TO RELATED TOPICS:
The Middle East & the Problem of Iraq
Page Two
Page One
The Problem of Rogue States:
Iraq as a Case History
National Strategy for Victory in Iraq
Middle East -- Arabs, Arab States,
& Their Middle Eastern Neighbors
The Middle East & the Problem of Iran
Islamism & Jihadism -- The Threat of Radical Islam
Page Three
Page Two
Page One
War & Peace in the Real World
Page Two
Page One
Islamist Terrorist Attacks on the U.S.A.
Osama bin Laden & the Islamist Declaration of War
Against the U.S.A. & Western Civilization
Islamist International Terrorism &
U.S. Intelligence Agencies
Counterterrorism & U.S. National Security
U.S. National Security Strategy
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Ph.D. in History (Yale University) and a specialist in Middle Eastern politics, Islamic culture and Islamist
ideology, is Editor of the Middle East Quarterly and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public
Policy Research. Dr Rubin is author of Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Washington Institute
for Near East Policy, 2001) and is co-author, with Dr. Patrick Clawson, of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave
Macmillan, 2005). Dr. Rubin served as political advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad (2003-2004); staff
advisor on Iran and Iraq in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense (2002-2004); visiting lecturer in the Departments of
History and International Relations at Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2001-2002); visiting lecturer at the Universities of
Sulaymani, Salahuddin, and Duhok in Iraqi Kurdistan (2000-2001); Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (1999-2000); and visiting lecturer in the Department of History at Yale University (1999-2000). He has been a fellow at
the Council of Foreign Relations, the Leonard Davis Institute at Hebrew University, and the Carnegie Council on Ethics and
International Affairs.
The foregoing article by Dr. Rubin was originally published in National Review, September 11, 2006, and can be found
on the Internet website maintained by the Middle East Forum.
Republished with Permission of the Middle East Forum
Reprinted from the Middle East Forum News
mefnews@meforum.org (MEF NEWS)
August 25, 2006
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